By NELSON NATURINDA

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For about four months, Ugandans had been minding their business, away from social media posts of General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the Chief of the Uganda People’s Defence Forces.

During that time, people tried to pour in the streets to mimic Kenya’s Gen Z and to demand better governance as well as end to corruption. They were crushed immediately by brutal police.

In that time too, President Yoweri Museveni, in power for four decades now vowed to tame the scourge of corruption. Well, three members of parliament were jailed last month, some out now on bail.

Then came Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s mind-boggling post on X that seemed to suggest that the arrest of some of the MPs was not about corruption but an orchestrated plan to silence his Movement and Plan to take over from his father in 2026. There are no known presidential candidates yet for 2026 and his father has not indicated he won't run.

Read: Gen Muhoozi: Back like he never left

“My friend, Michael Mawanda, is in prison (and they think we shall stay quiet forever) while people who have stolen from this country for decades are still Ministers?? Mzee should hear our cry for change. Michael Mawanda is a political prisoner. He was taken to prison by some politically dilapidated people in NRM for the 'great crime' of supporting Muhoozi Kainerugaba in Bushenyi. That his only crime is supporting me. Free Mawanda!” he posted.

Michael Mawanda, in jail in connection with involvement in theft, corruption, and attempts to defraud a cooperative union of funds, about sh160b ($43m), disbursed by the government for war veterans, is a Member of Parliament representing Igara East in Bushenyi district, western Uganda.

He was also the chairman of the MK project, an amorphous grouping that promoted Gen Kainerugaba’s presidential bid, which later metamorphosed into a political grouping, the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU).

For about two years, the group traversed the country, celebrating birthday parties and other events in which they announced Gen Kainerugaba as their preferred candidate for the 2026 presidential elections, whose date the electoral commission has just set to about January 12, 2026.

And in March 2024, when Gen Kainerugaba was appointed the Chief of Defence Forces, the highest office in Uganda’s military, supporters thought he had been rewarded with more powers and influence while political pundits said the standby generator as his supporters preferred to call him, had been switched off.

They observed that his appointment could have been a reminder that he is a serving soldier and should steer clear of politics because the Political Parties and Organisations Act (Section 16) says: “A member of the Uganda People’s Defence Forces, Uganda Police Force, the Uganda Prisons Service or a public officer or a traditional or cultural leader or a person employed in a company wholly owned by the government shall not- (a) be a founder, promoter or another member of a political party or organisation; (B) hold office in a political party/organisation; (C) Speak in public or publish anything involving matters of political or organisation controversy; or (d) engage in canvassing support of a political party or organisation or of a candidate standing for public election sponsored by a political party or organisation.”

Read: This General Muhoozi: Is he really serious?

But Gen Muhoozi had moved on with his mobilisation unhindered by this law.

And true to the analysis, for the last four months, nothing has come out of the general except pictures of him with diplomats and army officers appearing in the media and nothing much from the general himself.

Then he comes with a bang like a prisoner running out of incarceration, and floods X (formerly Twitter with statements one after the other, all controversial and revealing. He fired in all directions, including local politics, diplomacy, and international relations.

He sent one to his brother-in-law, Mr Odrek Rwabwogo, a presidential advisor on exports, who sources indicate is harboring presidential ambitions and enjoys the support of some members of Museveni’s family. He accused his father of hobnobbing with Rwabwogo, yet he has kept his supporter Mr Mawanda in jail.

Mr Rwabwogo’s team quickly responded with a statement, saying the remarks attributed to the general were instigated by intrigue.

But Gen Kainerugaba’s supporters also responded with a statement signed by one legislator Mr Daudi Kabanda, who vowed to “fiercely” push back the “inherently inaccurate’’ information.

 “As PLU, we want to assure every good meaning Ugandan to treat it as baseless, ungrounded, and unsubstantiated,” he said.

However, without divulging details, President Museveni asked his party National Resistance Movement members to avoid “unprincipled conflicts” and focus on the party’s principles of Patriotism, Pan-Africanism, Socio-Economic transformation, and democracy.

“Our mission is not personal gain, but the advancement of the people of Uganda,” President Museveni said last weekend during discussions with members of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) caucus at State House, Entebbe.

For now, political analysts believe President Museveni’s next term of office, which is as assured as sunset come 2026, will be dominated by more internal fights for supremacy among family members than political fights since political parties and their leaders have either been integrated into the ruling party or have been bribed to silence.

Whichever role Gen Kainerugaba takes could determine how or when Museveni leaves power.