The move, seeks to slow down the UN-mandated exit plan for the AU.
For the second time in nine months, Mogadishu will hold onto departing foreign forces to support its military as it emerges that the African Union mission in Somalia will maintain half of the troops that were expected to drawdown this month, with only 2,000 soldiers (from the earlier 4,000) now set to leave at the end of June, and eight forward operating bases handed over to the Somali National Army.
The move, spearheaded by the Federal Government of Somalia, seeks to slow down the UN-mandated exit plan for the AU peacekeepers, amid growing concerns of a security vacuum and the rising threat of al Shabaab extremists.
The decision runs counter to the United Nations Security Council Resolutions 2628 (2022), 2670 (2022), and 2710 (2023), which directed the gradual reduction of Atmis from June 2023, when the peacekeeping force was to shed 2,000 troops, and another 3,000 at the end of September 2023.
A further 4,000 soldiers were set to leave at the end of this month, just six months to the expiry of the mission’s mandate, complete withdrawal of all troops and liquidation of Atmis on December 31.
The current Atmis size stands at 13,586 uniformed personnel, which will drop to 11,586 on June 30, and 9,586 after the competition of Phase 3 of the drawdown in September.
Somali National Security Adviser Hussein Moalim – who authored the September 2023 request to the UNSC to defer troop drawdown – and Somalia’s Defence Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur did not immediately respond to our requests for comment. But insiders say the move is based on the Somali government’s assessment of the security situation.
This is the second time in nine months that the Somali government has sought to slowdown the exit of AU troops comprising military personnel from Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Burundi.
So far, the Uganda contingent on June 15 handed over the Bariire base in the Lower Shabelle region, with its 400 soldiers leaving the mission, while the Kenya contingent will cede control of three bases, Kaday, Burgayo and Abdallah-Birole, between June 18 and 26, with 600 troops exiting.
The Ethiopian forces will exit Maxaas military base on June 26, with 476 troops departing; the Burundi contingent will hand over two bases, Johwar Town and Ceel Egelow, with 400 soldiers leaving on June 20 and June 23; and the Djibouti contingent, with 124 soldiers, will cede Orhasen base and leave on June 30.
Ugandan security expert Simon Mulongo, who previously served as Deputy Head of Amisom [African Union Mission in Somalia], said Somalia’s second request to delay the troops exit confirms that its security forces are not ready for the transition.
He cites Somalia’s force generation struggles that have seen it fail to build a formidable army to fight the Al Shabaab.
Last month, Presidents Yoweri Museveni and William Ruto said that they were concerned about the threat of terrorism and insecurity “in our region” and called for the review of Atmis drawdown timelines.
A joint assessment by the AU and the Somali government in March also recommended that the peacekeepers’ withdrawal is revised based on the actual needs, including the security threats, but also the progress with force generation and the force’s capacity to assume security responsibilities or the second time in nine months, Mogadishu will hold onto departing foreign forces to support its military as it emerges that the African Union mission in Somalia will maintain half of the troops that were expected to drawdown this month, with only 2,000 soldiers (from the earlier 4,000) now set to leave at the end of June, and eight forward operating bases handed over to the Somali National Army.
The move, spearheaded by the Federal Government of Somalia, seeks to slow down the UN-mandated exit plan for the AU peacekeepers, amid growing concerns of a security vacuum and the rising threat of Al Shabaab extremists.
The decision runs counter to the United Nations Security Council Resolutions 2628 (2022), 2670 (2022), and 2710 (2023), which directed the gradual reduction of Atmis from June 2023, when the peacekeeping force was to shed 2,000 troops, and another 3,000 at the end of September 2023.
According to the UN Security Council approved timelines, a further 4,000 soldiers were set to leave at the end of this month, just six months to the expiry of the mission’s mandate, complete withdrawal of all troops and liquidation of Atmis on December 31, 2024.
The current Atmis size stands at 13,586 uniformed personnel, which will drop to 11,586 on June 30, and 9,586 after the competition of Phase 3 of the drawdown in September.
Somali National Security Adviser Hussein Moalim – who authored the September 2023 request to the UNSC to defer troop drawdown – and Somalia’s Defence Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur did not immediately respond to our requests for comment. But insiders say the move is based on the Somali government’s assessment of the security situation, leading to the request on May 16 to the AU Peace and Security Council for revised timelines that proposed a phased drawdown.
This is the second time in nine months that the Somali government has sought to slowdown the exit of AU troops comprising Uganda Peoples Defence Forces, Kenya Defence Forces, Ethiopia National Defence Forces, Djibouti National Defence Forces and Burundi National Defence Forces.
So far, the Uganda contingent on June 15 handed over the Bariire base in the Lower Shabelle region, with its 400 soldiers leaving the mission, while the Kenya contingent will cede control of three bases, Kaday, Burgayo and Abdallah-Birole, between June 18 and 26, with 600 troops exiting.
The Ethiopian forces will exit Maxaas military base on June 26, with 476 troops departing; the Burundi contingent will hand over two bases, Johwar Town and Ceel Egelow, with 400 soldiers leaving on June 20 and June 23; and the Djibouti contingent, with 124 soldiers, will cede Orhasen base and leave on June 30.
Ugandan security expert and diplomat Simon Mulongo, who served as Deputy Head of Amisom [African Union Mission in Somalia] from August 2017 to November 2021, said Somalia’s second request to delay the troops exit confirms that the country’s security forces are not fully ready for the transition.
He cites Somalia’s force generation struggles that have seen it fail to build a formidable army to fight the Shabaab.
“They’ve been posting a false image of force generation. It takes a lot to make a well-trained soldier with combat experience,” he said.
But he also took issue with the international community that pushed the peacekeeping force to reconfigure and transition from the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) to Atmis, to eventually hand over security responsibilities to the SNA, even though security realities on the ground showed otherwise.
Last month, Uganda President Yoweri Museveni and his Kenyan counterpart William Ruto added their voices to those of experts, stating that they were concerned about the threat of terrorism and insecurity “in our region” and calling for the review of Atmis drawdown timelines.
“During my meeting with President Museveni, we expressed concern about the drawdown of Atmis in Somalia and we urged that the timelines for the drawdown align with the security conditions on the ground in Somalia,” President Ruto said in the joint communique.
A joint assessment conducted by the AU and the Somali government in March also recommended that the peacekeepers’ withdrawal is revised based on the actual needs, including the security threats, but also the progress with force generation and the force’s capacity to adequately assume security responsibilities.
On June 15, Brig-Gen Anthony Lukwago Mbuusi, commander of the Ugandan contingent of Atmis led his troops in the handover to the SNA of Bariire base, which Ugandan troops have occupied since 2019; it holds strategic importance as it serves as a buffer zone, about 60km west of the capital, Mogadishu.
The agriculturally rich town of Barrile was liberated by AU and SNA troops in 2019, but prior to that, it was one of the five strategic bridge towns along the Shabelle River, serving as a key transit point for Al Shabaab extremists.
“This transfer is not just a transfer of physical assets, but it symbolizes the progress we have made together in our shared mission,” said Brig. Gen. Mbuusi as he handed over the base to SNA representative Maj. Muhudin Ahmed.
“Together, we will continue to work towards a brighter future for Somalia, one built on cooperation, mutual respect and the common goal of finding lasting peace,” the Uganda troops commander added.
But within days after the transfer this FOB and Atmis officers promising to back Somali-led operations to find lasting peace, Al Shabaab in a display of defiance and provocation, released a one-hour propaganda video of its “special force” graduating from the Sheikh Osama bin Laden Training Academy.
The video, which analysts have said is a part of the militant’s recruitment strategy in the Horn of Africa, is translated into five languages spoken in the region – English, Somali, Oromo, Amharic, Arabic, and French – also shows the group’s boldness to incite Somali security and its international partners.
Ahmed Fiqi, Somalia’s Foreign Minister dismissed the video as Al Shabaab propaganda and exaggerated to mask the group’s weaknesses, which he says the government forces have exposed in battle in Somalia’s central and southern regions.
However, with capacity to collect taxes and also tap from its financial backers, Al Shabaab has recruited fighters estimated at 12,000, and is using this strength to mount attacks at bases under the SNA control, resulting in recapture of territory like El Buur and Ruunirgood in Galguduud and Middle Shabelle respectively, after government forces withdrew.