By Charles Onyango-Obbo

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International and African media reliably give a lot of coverage to United Nations Group of Experts reports on the devastating and drawn-out conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and other documents released mainly by Western organisations.

There is one that they ignore: the “Security Situation in Eastern DRC Report” by the non-governmental organisation Never Again Rwanda (NAR), based in Kigali.

NRA works in peacebuilding and human rights, researches conflict, and to understand the dynamics that drive mass slaughter, as happened in the Genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda in 1994.

In June, it released its 2023 Security Situation in Eastern DRC Report. Unlike the UN reports, it is mercifully short, but it is more detailed and its documentation of the facts on the ground is meticulous.

Beyond the geopolitics that bedevil the eastern DRC crisis, one can see why media and busybodies on Congo ignored the report.

It makes for very uncomfortable reading, and if you are a thin-skinned African, you would not want to sit down for dinner with your mzungu friends who had just read it. You would be overcome by paranoia, thinking every side look any of them gave you was saying “This fellow’s kindred are truly violent savages.”

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The portrait of the killings, violence and human suffering brought upon the people of eastern DRC by the warring sides that emerge is appalling. And within that dreadful picture, the torment of, especially, the Banyamulenge and Hema people of eastern DRC is just horrible; their villages torched, many burnt in their houses, tens of thousands of their cattle seized; rapes, burnings, beheadings, mass expulsions, it is endless.

Some cases read like accounts that were told in the stream of new reports, books, documentaries, and films that flowed out of Rwanda after 1994, the only difference being where they are taking place.

The rebel M23, which tends to be the focus of international attention, is partly seen as a Banyamulenge political and military group, and protector. In the past two years, in a war that has displaced millions, it has conquered large swathes of territory in northeastern DRC, North Kivu.

A deeper reflection on NAR’s Security Situation in Eastern DRC Report leaves one with the impression that the international focus on M23’s headline military activities, and the scuffle over whether or not Rwanda backs it, has obscured realities with far greater regional consequences on the ground.

The Banyamulenge and Hema, faced with extermination, seem to have taken a last stand. From the place they have been boxed in, there’s an element in the M23 campaign that is a fight to the death. Their motivation to fight for survival seems to have risen to a level greater today than the incentive for the militias and former genocidaire forces like the FDLR, who are allied with the Kinshasa government, to finish them off. An adversary like that is very dangerous.

The hate speech and ethnic cleansing also seem to be driving many Congolese Tutsi into the hands of the M23. Outside of the NAR and UN reports, knowledgeable sources in eastern DRC suggest that M23 are “far more extensive than the outside world can even imagine.

For example, their victories in the Virunga late last year are said to have given them access to “very valuable agricultural plants and products,” and swelled their coffers considerably. The ethnic cleansing and hate merchandising have sent tens of thousands of young people to seek sanctuary in the arms of M23, which not only has more economic resources but also a lot of space to build out.

That would potentially tilt the military balance in its favour against Kinshasa, especially now that it has established local governments in the areas under its control. If this goes on longer, the rebels could be in a very strong negotiating position if they ever sit down at a table with Kinshasa.

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But, if the story of how South Sudan arose as the world’s newest country taught us anything, it is that these developments could even lead to the dreaded split of the Kivus from DRC.

As this column previously reported, these prospects have also led to the emergence of a new “one-united-DRC” nationalism in the country. For now, the Kinshasa government is benefiting from it, but as almost always happens, it is more likely to sweep it out of power if it loses the war in the east.

M23 then needs the folly of the Kinshasa to pave its way to glory. Every Banyamulenge lynched; killed, roasted and eaten while it is filmed on videos that are posted on social media as happened recently, converts into hundreds of new angry or desperate recruits for the rebels.

They also need many of these things to happen without too much international attention. M23 must secretly be enjoying it when the UN Group of Experts spend a lot of energy running around East African capitals to see which minister or intelligence officer, they are having lunch with, leaving them to create a massive army away from prying eyes back at home.

President Felix Tshisekedi and the UN might well be the best things that have happened to M23.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the “Wall of Great Africans”. X@cobbo3