There should be enough examples in the neighbourhood for Kenya to see how fast bad politics can destroy a country.
In a week of drama which must have shaken even the most apathetic observers of Kenyan politics, President William Ruto’s allies turned on his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, setting in motion a process to have him impeached.
The motion of impeachment against Gachagua was tabled in the National Assembly on October 1. The DP is set to exercise his right of reply on October 8, after days of public submissions by the public.
Seemingly numerically outgunned, he has come out guns blazing firing from the hip with both hands. On October 1, Makueni Senator Daniel Maanzo filed a censure motion against President Ruto in the Senate.
Two days later, Gachagua’s lawyers petitioned the courts under a certificate of urgency, in a bid to stop parliament from proceeding with the impeachment motion. The courts deferred their decision to a later date.
Even though the petitions against both men raise plausible issues, that their clash should escalate to that level indicates a deep and irretrievable breach of trust.
It also raises worrying questions about political stability and the likely impact on investor confidence and the economic trajectory.
Most worrying, however, is that it is proof that Kenya has not quite turned the corner on the politics of intrigue. It is also likely to divert attention from imminent human rights and economic issues as the Treasury grapples with mounting debt and the public demands accountability for the heavy-handed response to the Gen-Z protests earlier in the year.
Mounting geopolitical tensions also raise the prospect of disruptions to global trade, with unpredictable consequences for emerging economies.
All these worries should be enough to get a besieged administration to band together as they ride out the storm.
Despite the numbers, there are so many procedural pitfalls that there’s no guarantee that either Ruto or Gachagua will carry the day. Both could emerge from this battle so bruised that none is strong enough to hold the ship steady.
With the Gen-Z waiting in the wings, Kenya could easily see a Thermidorian Reaction in which the Gen-Z decide enough is enough.
There is no precedent to this, and it should be avoided at all costs. If the politicians mess up - again - Kenya could plunge into a self-reinforcing spiral of political instability and violence.
There should be enough examples in the neighbourhood for Kenya to see how fast bad politics can destroy a country.
While bad leaders should not be left in place just for the sake of stability, the path to impeachment should be pursued with care and procedural aplomb.
If Kenyans want to remove an undesirable, it is necessary that the process is seen to be transparent and fair to all and grounded in law. It should not leave any room for it to be perceived as a lynching by other means.