Egypt is rallying Somalia and Eritrea to a new loose security alliance that may further widen tensions in the Horn of Africa.
On Thursday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi landed in Asmara, where Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud had travelled on Wednesday, to hold trilateral talks with host Isaias Afwerki.
On the invitation of President Isaias Afwerki, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and his delegation arrived in Asmara, in the late morning hours today, for an official visit.
President el-Sisi and his delegation, which includes the Minister of National Security; the Chief… pic.twitter.com/BYbkArb478
A dispatch from the Egyptian presidency said the trip was meant to focus on “bilateral ties and stability of the Horn of Africa and Red Sea,” and that they will hold a tripartite summit.
Earlier on Wednesday, Presidents Mohamud and Afwerki held bilateral talks which, a dispatch indicated, focused on regional and international issues of “common interest.” Some of the details suggested intensified efforts to protect each other’s territories, a subtle warning to Ethiopia.
“The two leaders underscored the imperative of further bolstering the bilateral cooperation of the two sisterly countries in the heavy tasks of the maintenance of the sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence, and unity of Somalia,” the Eritrean Ministry of Information said.
“In this context, the two leaders noted that building a strong and developed nation is invariably predicated on robust and sovereign institutions, including a viable defense and security architecture.”
Eritrea has been training the Somali National Army for the past three years. But it is the entry of Egyptians that has roiled the waters in the Horn of Africa.
Egypt earlier signed a defence cooperation agreement with Somalia, offered to train Somali troops and equip them and pledged to send troops to the new African Union mission meant to replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis) whose mandate ends this December.
But Somalia did so while seeking to exclude Ethiopia from the new security arrangements, accusing Addis Ababa of trying to dismember Somalia’s territory.
The row was touched off in January when Ethiopia signed a controversial MoU with Somaliland, for access to the sea for a naval base in exchange for Ethiopia recognising Somaliland as independent of Somalia.
Mogadishu has protested against Ethiopia’s move in every international forum and accuses Addis Ababa of illegally sending arms to Somali territories. Ethiopian troops are a part of Atmis, and also serve in Somalia on a separate bilateral deal. Somalia has said it will end the arrangements.
Egypt’s entry has seen Ethiopia protest that Cairo is sending arms to a country with poor inventory management for arms, warning the weapons could end up in the hands of al-Shabaab militants.
In Asmara, a tripartite alliance could have a different significance.
For Somalia, it could offer more sense of security support against Ethiopia, now declared a public enemy.
For Egypt, it could provide assurances on the Red Sea security and isolation of Ethiopia, seen in Cairo as an enemy because of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam on the Nile that Ethiopia built and filled against Egyptian protests.
For Asmara, the deal could offer a way to get back at Ethiopia, with whom they fought the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) but immediately fell out after a truce was signed in November 2022. Eritrea has since stopped direct flights between Asmara and Addis Ababa.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud arrived in Asmara, where he commenced a working visit to the State of Eritrea. Upon arrival, the President was warmly welcomed by his counterpart, President Isaias Afwerki, at the Asmara International Airport. pic.twitter.com/ASPOroVfRW
Turkiye has been trying to mediate between Somalia and Ethiopia over the controversial Somaliland MoU, and the budding alliance may reduce the possibility of those talks continuing.
Ahead of Sisi’s trip to Asmara, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty on Wednesday met with African ambassadors accredited to Egypt to explain Cairo’s moves in the Horn.
“He outlined Egypt's position on a number of African and regional issues and their impact on the security and stability of the African continent,” a dispatch said.
Egypt relies on the traffic in the Red Sea via the Suez Canal, one of its revenue-generating facilities over the years. Transport through the Red Sea has been uncertain due to attacks on vessels by Yemeni Houthi rebels. But Egypt may have become more alarmed by Ethiopia’s plan to establish a naval force on the coast of Somaliland.
In the past, Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea had tried to build a Horn of Africa alliance. But the new format now means Addis Ababa is out of that picture.
