South Sudan has now gone 13 years without elections since it gained independence from Sudan.
South Sudan’s transitional government may face a legitimacy question as it starts an extended term of government, the result of failed plans to organise elections initially meant for December this year.
The reality check emerged this week as Juba’s development partners, who had offered guarantees to the 2018 peace deal that created the coalition arrangement, indicated they do not support an extension.
The gist of their argument is that South Sudan had already extended its term of government twice in the past, but still failed to meet the obligations that would have ensured elections.
In a joint statement, the African Union Mission in South Sudan (Aumiss), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), and the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (Unmiss) said the extension is a failure by the government of national unity to meet critical benchmarks.
“Regrettably, none of these extensions, since the R-ARCSS was signed on 12 September 2018, have helped achieve their objectives. It is imperative for South Sudan’s leaders to put the interests of the nation and its people first,” they said, referring to the 2018 peace deal mediated by Igad.
These benchmarks included the unification of armed forces and reforms in the security sector. Due to the trust deficit, only 53,000 of the 83,000 required by the 2018 peace agreement have been trained and integrated.
But even those who have been absorbed in the army lack weapons and often go without salaries for months.
There are also the provisions that the country can only go to the elections after enacting a permanent constitution—which experts say could take three years, at least.
The other prerequisite is the national census, which is supposed to determine the exact population of South Sudan and also allow the delineation of constituency boundaries.
Then there is the issue of the registration of political parties, and the return of more than 2.5 million refugees in the neighbouring countries and the resettlement of the 1.5 million internally displaced people.
South Sudan requires $228 million for elections, of which it can only afford 15 percent, for now. Yet the donors are insisting that Juba must fully implement the 2018 agreement—key among them the security sector reforms.
The actual 24-month extension kicks in from September 22. But the development partners issued a joint statement denouncing the move. Known as the Troika — comprising the UK, US, Norway, EU, Canada, France, Germany, and the Netherlands -- they expressed disappointment with the decision, emphasising that timely elections are crucial for strengthening stability, democracy, and sustainable development.
“We take note of the September 13 announcement of a two-year extension by the transitional government. We are aware of the many challenges South Sudan is facing and understand the complexity of the electoral process. The unity government owns this decision and is accountable to the people of South Sudan,” the Troika said.
The donors further criticised the government for failing to implement the 2018 peace agreement, despite the release of the "roadmap" in 2022.
“The process of developing this plan must be consultative, inclusive, and transparent. A 24-month extension would mean 24 more months of expenditure on the institutions that implement the peace process.
"We expect the government of South Sudan to come forward with a credible and transparent plan as to how these will be financed. The undersigned continue our unwavering support to the people of South Sudan,” they said.
More stakeholders weighed in on the matter, mostly disagreeing with Juba.
Catholic Archbishop Cardinal Stephen Ameyu described the move as a lack of political commitment.
“Though there is a need for political decisions to ensure sustainable peace in South Sudan, the political elites and parties to the peace agreement shouldn’t continuously exploit the resilience of South Sudanese but stick to their promises,” the cleric said.
While Juba faces legitimacy issues, politicians in the country say the elections wouldn’t proceed because of lack of money, and a general ill-preparedness.
President Salva Kiir and his first deputy Dr Riek Machar had been wary of elections, even though they often issued mixed signals from last year.
South Sudan has now gone 13 years without elections since it gained independence from Sudan.
According to Cabinet Affairs minister Dr Martin Elia Lomuro, the latest extension will allow the government to implement the remaining key provisions in the 2018 peace agreement.
“The extension is in response to the recommendations from the electoral institutions and the security sector. It is an opportunity to implement the pending issues in the peace deal,” he said.
The elections that were scheduled for December 22, 2024, have been pushed to December 2026 because key clauses of the 2018 peace agreement have not been implemented.
But that delay has caused concerns on whether it could hurt alternative talks to rope in parties who had stayed away from the 2018 peace deal.
The talks dubbed Tumaini Initiative had been going on in Nairobi and had seen some nine protocols agreed on, key among them a deal to peacefully negotiate the country’s political reforms and create a constitution.
Dr Cirino Hiteny, a delegate at the Tumaini Initiative, said that there is considerable uncertainty on whether the initiative will bear fruit after the extension without taking into account the Nairobi talks.
“We are waiting for the government delegation to come back from Juba to know how to proceed,” he said this week.
Mogga Loyo, a political commentator, argued the Tumaini Initiative was always a threat to some members of the government because it would mean giving up their positions to accommodate the holdouts.
Dr Machar, the leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) has made it clear that he is opposed to the Tumaini Initiative, because it is trying to replace the 2018 peace agreement, officially known as the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS).
Meanwhile, Maj-Gen Charles Tai Gituai, chairperson of the Revitalised Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC), which monitors violations on the peace deal, expressed concerns over the lack of progress in meeting critical electoral requirements, coupled with insufficient funding for the peace agreement’s implementation.
"In March this year, we requested the parties to the R-ARCSS to dialogue on the way forward to ensure the conduct of free, fair, and credible elections in a timely manner as per the roadmap. But, despite all the pressure, the response has been slow,” he said, referring to signatories to the peace agreement of 2018.
“Any extension without guaranteed funding is unlikely to result in a successful outcome, calling on the RTGoNU to address the funding and other challenges that have delayed implementation,” Gen Gituai said.
Prince Malish, a senior humanitarian, development, and policy research expert, believes South Sudan can exit the transitional trap through a gradual and sustained plan.
He proposed a phased approach to the elections, split into three stages across national, state, and local levels, which could be carried out between December 2025 and December 2026.
“This approach could enable the government to test the waters, reduce potential electoral violence, optimise resource utilisation, build confidence among the public and donors, and mitigate exhaustion and overstretching of the National Election Commission.
"He also noted that given the country's terrain, low literacy rates, logistical complexities, and limited security capabilities, a phased election process would allow for addressing gaps at each stage,” Malish explained.
According to Article 199 of the Transitional Constitution of South Sudan, 2011, the amendments and adjournment of general elections require at least one month before the deliberations
After gaining independence in July 2011, South Sudan was supposed to hold elections in 2015, but these aborted because of civil war.
Again, the country was supposed to hold an election in February 2023, but the leadership in August 2022 effected a 24-month extension on the grounds that the country was not ready.