To remove the President from office, at least two-thirds must vote in favour of impeachment in both the National Assembly and the Senate.
DP Gachagua is widely expected to mount a political and legal fightback, in the event the impeachment succeeds
Barring late intervention by Kenyan President William Ruto, an impeachment motion against Deputy President (DP) Rigathi Gachagua could be introduced in Parliament in the coming days, after an MP said this week, he had secured enough signatures endorsing the ouster bid.
The MPs pushing for Mr Gachagua’s impeachment accuse him of, among others, promoting ethnically divisive politics, undermining the president and having had a role in the anti-government uprising between June and July that saw Parliament overrun.
The Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) has recommended the prosecution of four of the DP’s associates, including two Nairobi MPs, with charges related to the uprising, which initially broke out as street protests against tax hikes.
In a statement Thursday, Mr Gachagua dismissed the DCI investigation of his staff and allies as politically instigated, saying it was part of the plot to have him impeached.
To remove the DP from office, at least two-thirds of members in each of the two houses of Parliament -- National Assembly and Senate – will be required to vote for the impeachment motion.
The last time a Kenyan vice president was ousted in similar circumstances was in 1989 when an MP brought a vote of no confidence in the then holder of the office, Dr Josephat Karanja, for allegedly undermining then President Daniel arap Moi.
Dr Karanja, who earlier served as Kenya’s first ambassador to Britain and vice-chancellor at the University of Nairobi, was forced to resign after only one year and one month in office.
Under the old Kenyan Constitution, he would have been fired by the president if he hadn’t resigned.
The current Constitution enacted in 2010, however, shields a DP from being dismissed by the president.
The prospects of Mr Gachagua getting ousted remain high, with the pro-impeachment group confident it can easily mobilise 233 MPs or two-thirds majority in the National Assembly to vote for the motion.
In the wake of the youth-led protests that shook his administration and forced him to disband his first Cabinet in July, President Ruto has moved to tighten his grip on Parliament by entering a deal with Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the country’s second largest party by number of MPs.
ODM is led by former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who is running for African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship with the backing of the Kenyan President.
If Mr Odinga gets a majority of his party’s 85 MPs to vote with their ruling Kenya Kwanza Coalition counterparts, Mr Gachagua’s fate would be sealed.
Being removed from office by impeachment makes one ineligible to hold public office, meaning Mr Gachagua, who has presidential ambitions of his own, would be left fighting for his political life.
The anti-Gachagua campaign also hopes impeaching the DP may help quell the internal rebellion he is fanning both in government and their United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party.
But it remains a double-edged sword for President Ruto and his political allies.
Unlike the diplomatic Dr Karanja who left with barely a whimper 35 years ago, the abrasive Gachagua is widely expected to mount a political and legal fightback, in the event the impeachment succeeds.
Kenyan courts have in the past saved the political careers of a number of county governors by overturning their impeachment by the Senate.
Court cases on impeachment also tend to drag for months, affording the affected politicians significantly more time in public office.
In Mr Gachagua’s case, a protracted court battle would give him time to advance his ambition to become the political king of the populous Mt Kenya region, while continuing to enjoy State privileges, including a seven-digit salary, lavish travel perks, a fleet of government cars, and presidential security escort.
Mt Kenya accounted for over 40 percent of the slightly over seven million votes President Ruto garnered in the 2022 election.
Mr Gachagua, in his campaign to wrest control of the region’s politics from the President, has largely succeeded in advancing a populist narrative, alleging personal persecution for defending local community interests, to win sympathy.
For President Ruto, the rising political temperatures from the Gachagua impeachment debate will be yet another source of concern.
His popularity has particularly taken a beating in the wake of the anti-government protests over tax hikes in June and July.
Would he rather have his renegade deputy inside the tent pissing out or outside pissing in?