Somalia, Ethiopia tensions bad for Horn security - US
Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud with CIA Director William J Burns and the National Intelligence and Security Agency Director Abdullahi Mohamed Sanbalolshe in Mogadishu on October 31, 2024.
William J Burns, the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), made an unannounced visit to Mogadishu on Thursday, October 2, on what was billed as a trip to discuss security challenges in the Horn of Africa region.
But officials suggested the CIA chief was in town to lobby for cooperation rather than enmity between Horn of Africa countries with which Washington has close counter-terrorism ties.
Burns also visited Egypt and Kenya, where he met with Presidents Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and William Ruto, respectively, to address security concerns ranging from Sudan's civil war to Houthi activity in the Red Sea.
But Somalia is important because it must decide who becomes members of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom), which is due to start work in January to take over from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis).
This transition has been fraught with problems, especially after relations between Somalia and Ethiopia soured from January this year. The spark was a controversial memorandum of understanding signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia that has been seeking international recognition for the last three decades.
Somalia's National Intelligence and Security Agency (Nisa) said the issue had come up, but only in terms of security cooperation, including counter-terrorism.
“They (Somali and US sides) examined the African Union Transition Mission – Atmis and the rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia,” Nisa said after a meeting between CIA chief and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud with Nisa Director Abdullahi Mohamed Sanbalolshe.
“The meeting underscored the importance of international partnerships in addressing shared security concerns.”
Ethiopia-Somalia spat
Sources in Mogadishu told The EastAfrican that the CIA is worried that the Ethiopia-Somalia spat is hurting Atmis transition to Aussom, where security experts have warned that a relapse in security coordination could allow al-Shabaab to regroup and hurt everyone in the Horn.
Ethiopia has not formally withdrawn the MoU, as Somalia has demanded, and mediation efforts by Turkey have failed to produce a solution.
However, Ethiopia and Somalia have in the past coordinated with the US Africa Command (Africom) to carry out targeted assaults on al-Shabaab bases. Air strikes and close intelligence cooperation between Somalia and Ethiopia have helped stem the flow of Shabaab across the border into Ethiopia, minimising attacks there. Last month, Africom officials admitted the MoU had broken the communication.
Washington formally wants Ethiopia to resolve the MoU differences directly with Somalia, seeing Somaliland as a threat to Somali sovereignty that could open a scourge of political problems in a country still seeking unity after years of broken institutions.
In Mogadishu, officials told The EastAfrican that there’s no room for Ethiopia in Aussom as long as it insists on the MoU. Ethiopia has been a part of Atmis alongside Kenya, Djibouti, Uganda and Burundi. The troop contributors to Aussom are not yet known but Egypt has promised to send 5,000 troops and another 5,000 soldiers bilaterally. This saw Ethiopia protest, warning Somalia was inviting a complex security problem by involving Egypt, which has longstanding tensions with Ethiopia over the Nile.
The MoU is said to grant Ethiopia access to the sea and space to build a naval base in Somaliland in exchange for recognition of Somaliland's independence. The pact has never been published by either party, however.
Ethiopian troops
In Somalia, Burns reaffirmed Somalia's territorial integrity but also urged that a solution be found on how to cooperate on the security front while addressing the dispute. But officials in Mogadishu say the MoU is a political incendiary that could land the administration in the soup if it appears to be giving away too much for so little.
Somalia, meanwhile, has said it will not escalate the tensions: It will allow Ethiopian troops to leave as scheduled and Ethiopian Airlines to continue flying to Somali airports and is ready for dialogue.
In Somalia, Burns reaffirmed Somalia's territorial integrity but also urged that a solution be found on how to cooperate on the security front while addressing the dispute. But officials in Mogadishu say the MoU is a political incendiary that could land the administration in the soup if it appears to be giving away too much for so little. Somalia, meanwhile, has said it will not escalate the tensions: It will allow Ethiopian troops, to leave as scheduled and Ethiopian Airlines to continue flying to Somali airports. and is ready for dialogue.
The CIA chief's visit comes several weeks after Sanbalolshe's trip to Washington in early October, where he met with US officials.
Burns’ visit on Thursday is his second to Mogadishu this year.
His visit to the Somali capital in January followed a US Navy Seal operation to intercept an Iranian arms shipment off the coast, during which two commandos went missing.
Somaliland election
Meanwhile, an election in Somaliland this month could have a direct impact on the future of the MoU and relations with Mogadishu. Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi, who signed the deal with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, is keen to see it fully implemented. He is in the race and has used it to defend the future of Somaliland.
However, there is the pending issue of how Somaliland addresses the question of SCC Khatumo, the district that straddles Somaliland and the semi-autonomous Puntland State. Late last year, a militia from the district defeated Somaliland forces an forced them to retreat. The elders immediately asked Mogadishu to administer the region directly as they push for their own federal state.
Some experts have used this example to show that there is no unanimity in Somaliland to secede.
