By MAWAHIB ABDALLATIF

More by this Author

Sudan’s war has been so calamitous that some security experts are comparing it with Libya, which continues to run under two opposed governments, 10 years on.

While that could also be a false alarm because the warring factions sometimes show signs of suing for unity, only differing on the methodology, the difficulty in bringing the sides to embrace a ceasefire is a disturbing sign.

This week, Tom Perriello, US Special Envoy to Sudan, toured Kenya and Ethiopia, two important members of the regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), which had tried to mediate in Sudan but failed.

Perriello was positive on some issues, including humanitarian access, which the warring factions have started allowing. “We are relieved by the significant, if gradual, improvement in humanitarian access,” he told reporters in Nairobi, indicating that “several hundred trucks have crossed areas that were previously closed.”

According to World Food Programme (WFP), some 26 million people in Sudan are facing food insecurity, with a famine declared in the Zamzam camp in Darfur.

Read: Sudan grapples with biting hunger pangs as one-year civil war persists

Since the onset of the current conflict, more than 10 million people have been displaced both internally and abroad.

The war, which was a key topic at last week’s UN General Assembly meetings in New York, has claimed tens of thousands of lives and forced a fifth of the population to seek refuge in neighbouring countries.

This trip reflected frustration, too, and Perriello said the situation is very serious, warning that “it seems that those who are best placed to stop it want to accelerate it.”

The Sudan Armed Forces under Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan were once allies of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). When they fell out in April 2023, some predicted a short-lived disagreement. They have now shared out almost the entire territory of Sudan with their allied militia.

That has led some people to warn that Sudan may be headed toward a fate similar to Libya’s, as violent clashes persist between two rival generals competing for control over vast territories.

In Libya, the internationally recognised Government of National Unity is based in Tripoli in the west, controlling about a third of the country and backed by various militia.

A rival government in the east, under the House of Representatives (HoR) based in Tobruk, controls the rest of the country and is supported by Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army.

“There is that possibility (of going the Libyan way). (But) That might not happen,” said Dr Jihad Mshamoun, a Sudanese political analyst and honorary research fellow at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the university of Exeter in the UK “That is because, if we look at the ethnic background of Darfur, it is a mix of Arab and African tribes.”

In Sudan, some tribes cross the borders beyond Sudan. The Zaghawa, for instance, are an African ethnic group with extensions into Chad and comprise the ruling class there.

“Now, if we look at the Arab tribes close to (Mohamed Hamdan Daglo) Hemedti and the RSF such as the Rezigat, they also have extensions into Chad, but do not have substantial power in Chad, except a few military officials here and there who helped Hemedti,” Dr Mashamoun told The EastAfrican.

When the conflict began, the RSF targeted the Massalit, an African tribe in West Darfur, committing war crimes and genocide, according to UN investigators.

Today, the Zaghawa who, are concentrated in North Darfur, particularly its capital in Al Fasher, are putting up stiff resistance against the RSF siege and attempted invasion of the city.

Read: Violent clashes erupt in Sudan's North Darfur

Dr Mashamoun explained that past events may have inspired them into the fight.

“Unless Hemedti and his RSF bring all the scattered Arab tribes support in the Sahel up to Mali and resettle them in Darfur, that conclusion of Hemedti’s forming a government in Darfur is not possible.”

Some people also told The EastAfrican that a rival government under RSF could inspire Arab ethnic groups in Chad to start a rebellion against the Chadian government, weakening RSF support base there.

Sometimes the warring factions in Libya have had similar external backers as in Sudan, suggesting a long hand of foreign influence in both wars.

Recently, Libyan factions invited representatives of Burhan and his nemesis Hemedti for indirect talks. The mediation never materialised.

Hemedti has heavily profited from the UAE, which is now accused by the US of arming the RSF. The UAE officially rejects the accusations that UN investigators call credible.

Last week, Washington elevated defence relations with Abu Dhabi, naming the UAE a “Major Defence Partner.” Perriello argued that there was no contradiction calling the relationship with the Gulf country a “partnership with many components.”

“Even with our closest partners around the world, we tend not to see eye-to-eye on every issue, and so it is very possible for us to have a very close partnership and continue to communicate our disagreement on a particular issue in any case,” he said in Nairobi on Monday.

“Our position on Sudan has been clear and consistent. We have never seen the RSF as a valid military or legal entity unlike SAF which has and sometimes we pronounce them. We are extremely clear, that right now we need all the countries of the region with influence over SAF or RSF to push for a peaceful solution.”

The US itself has tried to mediate the two sides without success. The “Jeddah Declaration,” announced on May 11, 2023, intended to protect civilians, was overshadowed by continued military escalation.

Recent negotiations in Geneva, which began on August 14, 2024, under US mediation and UN sponsorship, also faltered due to the absence of the SAF, significantly undermining the prospects for resolution.

Read: Sudan army snubs Geneva ceasefire talks

A round of negotiations scheduled in Cairo on August 30, 2024, also failed to take place due to the SAF delegation’s absence, further complicating political settlement efforts.

This week, Western envoys admitted using some untenable tools to mediate in Sudan. They are returning to the region to seek views from Sudan’s neighbours.

Additional reporting by Aggrey Mutambo