A tale of two shares: How EAC black market is reshaping BAT’s fortune

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BAT factory in Nairobi. While BATU’s profits are coming under threat from the smuggled cigarettes, Kenya’s BAT posted strong full year results a fortnight ago.

An impromptu customs check in northern Uganda tells it all. Smugglers bring in cheap cigarettes using motorbikes, pedestrians and fuel tankers catching tax customs officers off guard, a signal Uganda’s British American Tobacco (BATU) is in for a tougher year.

Analysts are warning that as it prepares to release its full year results in the coming weeks, the firm could see its earnings dented due to an increase in volumes of smuggled cigarettes in Uganda.