Farmers pack wheat into bags in 2011. The harvest this time round is projected to be bad. The East African Community is bracing for a shortage of staple foods in coming months with a predicted decline in agricultural production. Photo/FILE
What you need to know:
Agriculture experts in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania have forecast a decline in the yields of some of the region’s staple crops in the ongoing harvesting season, triggering a rise in food prices.
The decline is attributed to erratic weather and an increase in plant diseases in the region.
An Oxfam report showed that rises in food price were having a damaging effect on the poorest communities in the region. The report says that three-quarters of all consumption expenditure among the poorest 20 per cent is on food.
The East African Community is bracing for a shortage of staple foods in coming months with a predicted decline in agricultural production.
Agriculture experts in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania have forecast a decline in the yields of some of the region’s staple crops in the ongoing harvesting season, triggering a rise in food prices.
The decline is attributed to erratic weather and an increase in plant diseases in the region.
A decline in food production is always dreaded as it is not only capable of fanning inflation but also slowing down overall economic growth, given the fact that agriculture is the major contributor to the region’s gross domestic product.
Any rise in food prices will squeeze the budgets of most households in the region. Uganda’s inflation rate stood 3.40 per cent in June while Kenya recorded at 4.91 per cent and Tanzania’s stood at 7.60 per cent.
An Oxfam report released last week showed that rises in food price were having a damaging effect on the poorest communities in the region.
The report, which focused on Kenya, Ethiopia, Zambia and Burkina Faso, says that three-quarters of all consumption expenditure among the poorest 20 per cent is on food.
Oxfam points out that the last major food price rises provoked mass popular discontent across the world, were even linked to the Arab Spring and increased the numbers of people living in poverty by an estimated 44 million.
In Kenya, the provincial crop production report on the Rift Valley region, the country’s breadbasket, predicts a decline in the production of maize and wheat this year.
The government says the country expects to harvest four million bags of wheat — two million less than last year. Maize yields, on the other hand, are expected to fall from 22 million bags (90 kilogramme bags) to 17 million bags.
Uganda also predicts a decline in the production of maize and other food crops, due to erratic weather, diseases, pests and shortage of arable land.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fisheries, the average landholding in Uganda has shrunk to two and half acres per household, making it difficult for any meaningful agricultural activity to take place.
Maize and beans have been mostly affected this year, with only a few farmers who planted early reporting good harvests, while the majority are recording losses.
In Tanzania, the most affected crops will be maize, cassava, banana and palm, agriculture officials said, while projecting a production shortfall.
According to the Minister for Agriculture, Food Security and Co-operatives, Christopher Chiza, the maize lethal necrosis disease has spread to various parts of the country affecting crop yields in Mtwara, Coastal Region, Kagera, Arusha and Morogoro.
The decline comes at a time when Tanzania is struggling to meet the demand for food, which has risen sharply in the past decade.
Information from the Bank of Tanzania indicates that the stock of maize and sorghum held by the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) decreased to 36,982 tonnes in April this year, from 46,153 tonnes the month before.
Agriculture officials in Kenya’s Rift Valley attribute the decline to erratic rainfall in the South Rift and an increase in pests and plant diseases like rust, maize streak virus and maize lethal necrosis, which have destroyed farmlands not only in Rift Valley but also other parts of the country.
The wheat rust, for example, has affected wheat production in Narok, which accounts for more than half of the crop harvested. Maize streak virus, maize lethal necrosis, aphids, head smut and cat worms have dealt a major blow to maize production in other parts of the Rift Valley.
There are fears that the prices of the two staples could increase later in the year and early next year, if the decline in production becomes a reality.
However, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Felix Kosgei allayed these fears, saying the country’s food security has stabilised and it has adequate stock to feed its population.
According to the latest update compiled by the Agriculture Ministry, the country has enough stocks of coarse grains to last up to the end of September 2013, except for rice and wheat.
On average, Kenya consumes 3.72 million bags of maize, 667,500 bags of beans and 940,000 bags of wheat every month. All bags weigh 90kgs.
Food sufficient
“The national maize stocks as at June 30 this year, stood at 12,180,686 bags, with farmers holding about 7,566,000 bags, traders 1,880,910 bags, millers 461,215 bags and National Cereals and Produce Board 2,272,561 bags,” said the latest food security update.
The ministry supports Mr Kosgei’s sentiments, saying that based on a consumption of 3.72 million bags per month, the available stocks in June, added to the expected long rains production and imports, are enough to last the country up to September, with a net surplus of 6,635,069 bags of 90kgs. Beans, on the other hand, total 642,235 bags, wheat 257,595 bags and rice 437,855 bags.
Kenya relies heavily on imports to supplement local maize production, which has been outstripped by demand.
The total imports from the EAC between July and September we expected to be 450,000 bags, while those from outside the region are projected to reach 100,000 bags.
However, imports from Uganda and Tanzania may be difficult as the two countries are also facing food deficits.
In Uganda, though the rains came early, they did not help much as they were short lived and heavy, destroying root crops like potatoes and cassava because of flooding, says Beatrice Byarugaba, the commissioner crop production and marketing at the Ministry of Agriculture.
“When we visited farmers across the country, we found the maize drying up when it was just beginning to flower,” says Ms Byarugaba.
The failure of the maize crop will be a major blow for Uganda considering it is not just a food security crop but also an export earner. In 2012, maize contributed $58.6 million to Uganda’s export earnings outdoing flowers, which brought in $52.8 million.
Banana farmers are also counting their losses, due to the banana bacterial wilt disease. According to the Agriculture Ministry, in 2001, the disease halved the production of bananas in Uganda to 2.5 million and there are concerns the same could happen this year.
Though disease has already wiped out some plantations, Opolot Okaasi, the director crop resources in the Agriculture Ministry, says the problem will not reach the scale of 2001. Mr Okaasi said the ministry has invested Ush2 billion ($761,148) to educate farmers on ways to fight the disease.
In Tanzania, during the month of April, according to the central bank, NFRA purchased 3,066.8 tonnes and sold 12,237.4 tonnes of maize and sorghum, out of which 7,741.2 tonnes were sold to the Disaster Co-ordination Unit in the Prime Minister’s Office, 4,125.2 tonnes to private traders, and 371 tonnes to the Prisons Department.
In Tanzania, the average prices for all major food crops increased except for rice, whose importation increased following a waiver of import tax.
The cereal is also abundant in Uganda. Information from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics shows the country’s rice production has increased from 50,000 in 2005 to 233,000.
To tackle food insecurity, Uganda is undertaking research in the country’s nine agricultural zones to come up with varieties of crops suitable to specific areas.
It will also recommend to farmers new crop varieties that are not only drought resistant but also mature faster.
The government has already written to different donors for financial aid in designing ditches to help improve water retention.
Tanzania, on the other hand, is formulating regulations that will help it create public awareness on how to control maize diseases.
