2014: Poor rainfall, shortage of food for Tanzania

Tanzania is likely to face an acute food shortage next year following a forecast of below average rainfall in most parts of the country during the short rains season beginning next month.

A 2012/2013 Final Forecast of Food Security report published by the Ministry of Agriculture shows the rains account for 32 per cent of the total food production in the country, some 2.3 million tonnes.

During the period, the country produced 13.34 million tonnes of food, of which 7.4 million tonnes were cereals and 5.9 million tonnes non-cereals.

According to Tanzania Meteorological Agency director Agnes Kijazi, the short rain season that begins in October and ends in December is forecast to be below normal in most parts of the country.

Ms Kijazi advised farmers to plant early maturing and drought tolerant crops to make the most of the little water likely to be available.

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The food security report also shows the country experienced a rain shortage during the 2012/2013 season that led to production of food grains totalling 1.8 million tonnes, 435,000 tonnes below the expected production of 2.3 million tonnes.

According to the Minister for Agriculture, Food Security and Co-operatives Christopher Chiza, a food availability analysis conducted between September 2012 and January revealed 47 municipal councils in 19 regions with acute food shortages.

“However, the food shortage situation has been worsening at different degrees and has now reached 70 municipal councils without adequate food supply,” he said.
He said between March and July, the government had distributed 69,000 tonnes of relief food.

As a result, the country suffered a grave shortage in its major grain reserve, with the National Food Reserve Agency having 27,000 tonnes of food between May and June, enough to feed the country for 16 days only, the lowest in five years.

Mr Chiza further said lack of rain during the shortfall season of 2011/2012 and shortage of food in Somalia and South Sudan led to the rise of prices by as high as 86 per cent.

He gave the example of rice, whose wholesale price rose from Tsh1,300 (84 US cents) per kilo in August 2012 to Tsh2,800 ($1.80) in February.

In order to avert a food crisis, Tanzania imported 20,000 metric tonnes of maize from Zambia in March at a cost of Tsh11.2 billion ($7.2 million). Tanzania’s current food import bill stands at Tsh1.12 trillion ($700 million).

Mr Chiza said the country further removed duty on importation of rice for nine companies in December 2012, allowing them to import 60,000 tonnes of rice on condition that the imported rice would not sell above Tsh1,700 ($1.1) per kilo at retail. As of March 30, Tanzania had imported 35,000 tonnes of rice duty-free, after which the exemption was suspended on the ground that the situation had returned to normal.

The 2012/2013 food forecast by the Ministry of Agriculture shows pockets of vulnerable areas scattered in 63 municipal councils in 17 regions out of 30.

Out of the 17, the report issued a warning for five regions — Tabora, Shinyanga, Manyara, Arusha and Kilimanjaro — with 31 districts being cited as facing acute food shortages.

“Further warnings are focused on 12 regions bearing pockets of food shortage in 32 districts, 28 from eight definitely self-sufficient regions and four from four definitely surplus regions,” reads the forecast.

The food forecast report observes that the rampant vulnerability in self-sufficient and food surplus regions indicates that the lower one goes from the national level, the worse it gets.

“The self-sufficient food status at the national level masks the true colours that are better reflected at lower levels down towards households and individuals,” says the report.

Agriculture employs 75 per cent of Tanzanians. In 2012, it contributed 26.8 per cent of the GDP compared with 23.7 per cent in 2011.