Continent in democratic recession, says Mo Ibrahim Index

Mo Ibrahim released the annual Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) on October 5 with little fanfare compared with the response in March when Hifikepunye Pohamba, former Namibian president, won the $5 million prize for Achievement in African Leadership.

The latest edition of the index, which includes South Sudan for the first time, shows a continent in democratic recession, having improved only 0.2 points, to 50.1, in four years.

Slightly more than one-third of African countries have experienced a reversal in governance since 2011.

This trend has not spared star performers such as Mauritius, Cape Verde, Botswana and the Seychelles, raising doubt about their continued dominance of the top ranks of the index in the future.

Côte d’Ivoire, Morocco, Rwanda and Senegal are among the six countries that registered progress in the past five years. The other two are Somalia and Zimbabwe.

“The results of the 2015 IIAG reveal that overall governance progress in Africa is stalling,” said Mo Ibrahim at the launch of the index in London.

He was, however, quick to point out that the results should not be used to make broad and sweeping generalisations because “Africa is not a country.

“The scores and trends seen in the 54 individual countries on the continent are diverse, each showing specific patterns in their own right, along a wide range of results, with more than a 70-point gap between the top-ranking country, Mauritius, and the bottom-ranking country, Somalia.”

Six months ago, when Mr Pohamba won the prize for “exemplary leadership,” Mo Ibrahim said it was a sign that Africa does not have a shortage of good leaders.

However, the current IIAG data shows that poor leadership is to blame for the stalled progress in African governance. Deterioration of security and the rule of law outweighs improvements in human rights and development.

Africa has witnessed a surge in conflicts and civil wars over the past five years, which is partly blamed on the clamour for term extension by leaders and the military leaving the barracks for presidential palaces.

“Average scores at the continental level are dwindling, and this is mainly driven by a decline in the rule of law and economic opportunities,” Christina Nelson, a senior programme manager at the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, told The EastAfrican on the phone.

The five largest deteriorations in governance scores are seen in places with conflict, which represent countries destabilised by coups or failed revolutions.

At -9.6 points, South Sudan registered the biggest overall decline in its governance score, followed the Central African Republic, Mali, Guinea-Bissau and Libya.

Cote d’Ivoire has rebuilt after it was torn apart by sectarian violence. Despite ranking 35th on the index, it is the best improved country in overall governance in the past four years, since the 2010 post-election violence that nearly plunged the country into civil war.

Since the first edition of the Mo Ibrahim African index in 2006, small and island nations have dominated the top of the list of Africa’s best governed countries. Mauritius, Cape Verde, Botswana, South Africa, Namibia, Seychelles and Ghana always feature on top of the index.

However, Senegal (ninth), Tunisia (eighth), Kenya (14th), Rwanda (11th) and Morocco (16th) are challenging their continuing dominance; they have registered the biggest improvements in overall governance since 2011.

Zambia and Benin dropped out of the top 10 in 2012, and were replaced by Senegal and Lesotho, both of which have continued to show positive trends over the past four years.

Cape Verde, whose former president Pedro Verona Pires won the $5 million leadership prize in 2011, is among the 10 countries that have experienced large deterioration in governance in the past four years. Botswana (second) is also on the list of biggest losers.

Southern Africa, with an average score of 58.9, leads in being the most stable and peaceful corner of continent, followed by West Africa (52.4), North Africa (51.2), East Africa (44.3), and Central Africa (40.9).

North Africa was scored highest in governance over the past four years. All countries in the region, with the exception of Libya, which is currently going through civil war, registered improvements.

With the absence of conflict in the region, Southern Africa’s progress was underpinned by gains in eight of its 12 nations, with the most notable being Zimbabwe’s overall score improvement at +4.6.

West Africa’s overall improvement was dragged down by Mali, whose security situation has deteriorated since the civil war in 2012.

The wider East African region on the other hand has experienced marginal gains in the past four years, as South Sudan, Burundi, Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Djibouti pull down the regional average.

Central Africa was the only region to register a decline in the overall governance score since 2011, as the situation in Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo worsened.