Kenya’s Ruto game plan to contain internal rebellion in his government
Saturday September 21 2024
President William Ruto chats with Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga during a Sunday service at Ngangarithi Primary School Grounds in Nyeri County on September 15, 2024. Photo | File
When in July Kenyan president William Ruto nominated five members of the opposition party ODM to his reconstituted Cabinet, he was widely seen as ceding ground to Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in their battle to control the politics of the populous Mt Kenya region.
ODM is led by Raila Odinga, the country’s former prime minister and five-time presidential election loser who has long been the lightning rod for negative political sentiment in the region, which Mr Gachagua regards as his political territory.
Mr Odinga’s bogeyman status in the region was underlined in the last presidential election in 2022 when voters there chose Dr Ruto over him despite his endorsement by then outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta and an influential club of rich business people from the region, calling itself Mt Kenya Foundation.
Over the two months to July, Dr Ruto appeared to have his back to the wall as his renegade deputy moved around addressing large public rallies in the Mt Kenya counties featuring anti-government rhetoric.
But events in recent weeks suggest that the President believes he has a fighting chance in a region that accounted for over 40 percent of the slightly over eight million votes he garnered in the 2022 election.
He won the closely contested election with 50.49 percent of the vote, against Odinga’s 48.5 percent.
The internal rebellion being fomented in a key voting bloc by Mr Gachagua, who believes there are plans to have him dropped as Dr Ruto’s running mate in 2027, and the prospects of widespread social unrest over the cost of living have emerged as the top threats to the President’s re-election.
Read: Kenya Deputy President Gachagua trump card in battling political siege
The President’s popularity has particularly taken a beating in the wake of the anti-government protests over tax hikes in June and July that saw parliament overrun and forced him to disband his Cabinet.
For damage control, his political strategists appear to be working on a triple barrel game plan, which involves taming Gachagua, appeasing a restless population and weakening the opposition through co-option.
In its early budget plans for the next financial year, the Treasury has signalled its intention to cut the tax target by Sh334 billion, betraying fears in government over a possible outbreak of protests similar to the ones that forced the President to withdraw the 2024 Finance Bill in June.
Read: Kenya President Ruto might struggle to get things done
The lower tax target for the next financial year bucks the trend in the first two years of the Ruto administration, earning himself the nickname ‘Zakayo’ after the biblical character called Zaccheaus, the tax collector.
Four days ago, he launched a climate jobs programme, dubbed Climate WorX, which aims to enlist 200,000 youth across the country in environmental conservation activities such as solid waste management, rehabilitation of rivers, and tree planting.
But it is his political moves to contain the internal rebellion in his government that has hit the headlines. After four months of indulging his deputy, Dr Ruto looks to have decided to go on the offensive.
The President’s allies in the ruling Kenya Kwanza Coalition were early this week reported to be dusting off an impeachment motion abandoned last month.
Like in August, the latest impeachment bid against Mr Gachagua is being fronted by Members of Parliament from his Mt Kenya backyard, who accuse him of risking government services in the region by antagonising the President.
Last week, Dr Ruto’s allies also embarked on executing a strategy to isolate Gachagua both in local politics and government.
More than 40 MPs representing constituencies in the region issued a statement renouncing their loyalty to the Deputy President and declaring allegiance to his regional political rival, the Interior minister Kithure Kindiki.
The Deputy President has been regarded as the region’s political spokesman by virtue of his holding the second highest office in government. With Prof Kindiki’s rising profile, Mr Gachagua is likely to find himself increasingly isolated in government.
The anti-Gachagua gamble in Mt Kenya could go wrong given the souring public sentiment in the region in the past few months.
Prof Kindiki, a former senator and Senate Deputy Speaker, also boasts considerable support in at least three counties whose residents feel aggrieved over being marginalised from the region’s mainstream power politics.