A UN report — World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision — notes that about half of population growth will be experienced in Africa, which, notably, has the highest rate already. FILE PHOTO |
What you need to know:
High population growth rates present their own set of challenges.
This should worry world leaders because the final scorecard on the Millennium Development Goals, released recently, notes that the continent lags behind the other developing regions on most targets.
The three areas that need to be watched keenly because they will shape the worlds’ populations in coming decades are the slowing fertility rates, a growing and rapidly ageing population as well as higher life expectancy.
When the world meets in New York next month to adopt a bold new vision for sustainable development, a key area of concern will be the globe’s burgeoning population, which is projected to reach 8.5 billion people by 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050, from 7.3 billion people currently.
A new UN report — World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision — notes that about half of this growth will be experienced in Africa, which, notably, has the highest rate of population growth already. High population growth rates present their own set of challenges.
This should worry world leaders because the final scorecard on the Millennium Development Goals, released recently, notes that the continent lags behind the other developing regions on most targets.
Even though the UN said remarkable gains have been made worldwide on the eight MDGs, its overall verdict is that “progress has been uneven across regions and countries, leaving significant gaps.”
This “unevenness” is among the setbacks that world leaders would be keen to overcome if the Sustainable Development Goals which take effect from January next year, are to be rated as successful.
“Understanding the demographic changes that are likely to unfold over the coming years, as well as the challenges and opportunities that they present for achieving sustainable development, is key to the design and implementation of the new development agenda,” said Wu Hongbo, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.
In particular, the new UN report notes that the populations of 28 African countries are projected to more than double by 2050, and by 2100, 10 African countries including Uganda, Burundi and Tanzania are projected to increase by at least a factor of five. The others are Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia and Zambia.
In fact, Tanzania and Uganda make it to the list of nine countries worldwide in which half of the world’s population growth is expected to be concentrated. The two countries take position six and nine respectively, in the size of their contribution to the total growth.
The first is India, then Nigeria, Pakistan, DRC and Ethiopia in that order. In seventh position is the US, followed by Indonesia.
Most of the projected increase in the world’s population is attributed to a short list of high fertility countries mainly in Africa, or those with already large populations.
“The concentration of population growth in the poorest countries presents its own set of challenges, making it more difficult to eradicate poverty and inequality, to combat hunger and malnutrition, and to expand educational enrolment and health systems, all of which are crucial to the success of the new sustainable development agenda,” said John Wilmoth, director of the population division in the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Africa is expected to play a central role in shaping the size and distribution of the world’s population over the coming decades because it has a large number of young people who will reach adulthood in the near future and who will start having children of their own.
But on the flip side, a young population is a positive thing because it creates an opportunity for countries to capture a demographic dividend.
In Africa, children under the age of 15 account for 41 per cent of the population and young persons aged 15 to 24 account for a further 19 per cent, UN estimates show.
“The children and young people are future workers and parents, who can help to build a brighter future for their countries” notes the UN report. “Providing them with health care, education and employment opportunities, particularly in the poorest countries and groups, will be a critical focus of the new sustainable development agenda.”
The three areas that need to be watched keenly because they will shape the worlds’ populations in coming decades are the slowing fertility rates, a growing and rapidly ageing population as well as higher life expectancy.
In recent years, fertility rates have declined in virtually all areas of the world, even in Africa where levels remain the highest of any major area. However, relatively small changes in fertility behaviour, when projected over decades, can generate large differences in total population, notes the report.
The slowdown in population growth, due to the overall reduction in fertility, causes the proportion of older persons to increase over time.
Globally, the number of persons aged 60 or above is expected to more than double by 2050 and more than triple by 2100.
While Africa has the youngest age distribution of any major area, it is also projected to age rapidly, with the population aged 60 years or over rising from 5 per cent today to 9 per cent by 2050.
Life expectancy at birth has also increased significantly in the least developed countries in recent years. The six-year average gain in life expectancy among the poorest countries, from 56 years in 2000-2005 to 62 years in 2010-2015, is about double the increase recorded for the rest of the world.
While significant differences in life expectancy across major areas and income groups are projected to continue, they are expected to diminish significantly by 2045-2050.
Progress in reducing under-five mortality, one of the MDG targets, has been significant and wide-reaching in recent years.
Between 2000-2005 and 2010-2015, the mortality fell by more than 30 per cent in 86 countries, of which 13 countries saw a decline of more than 50 per cent. In the same time period, the rate decreased by more than 20 per cent in 156 countries, notes the report.
