Smooth transitions in Rwanda, Uganda crucial for the region

The lack of clear transition laws in Uganda and faltering political reforms in Rwanda, could dent the democracy credentials of the East African Community.

Progress in democracy in the region has been slow and uneven compared with the rest of the world.

The latest survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) shows global democracy was at a standstill because there was neither significant progress nor regression in democracy last year. The report, dubbed Democracy Index 2012, based on the data collected last year, ranks Tanzania as the most democratic country in East Africa followed by Uganda, Kenya, Burundi and Rwanda in that order.

The democracy index is based on five categories: Electoral processes and pluralism; civil liberties; the functioning of government; political participation and political culture.

The EIU ranks Tanzania as number 81 on the democracy index with an overall score of 5.88 points out of a possible 10 points. Uganda is at number 94 with 5.16 points, Kenya is at position 104 with 4.71 points, Burundi is at position 125 with 3.6 points and Rwanda is at position 132 with 3.36 points.

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Tanzania improved its score from the 5.64 points it recorded in 2011; Uganda also improved from its previous 5.13 points, while Kenya maintained the same score for the second year. Burundi dropped from 2011’s score of 4.01 points while Rwanda improved slightly from a score of 3.25.                        
The EIU suggests that out of the 44 sub-Saharan countries polled, only the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius can be considered a full democracy; 10 are flawed democracies, nine are hybrid regimes and 24 are authoritarian regimes.

The region has several flawed democracies — considered to be on their way to being full democracies — that include South Africa, Benin, Cape Verde, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, Ghana, Malawi and Zambia. Comparatively, in 2011, only one country was considered a full democracy, nine were flawed, 11 were hybrid regimes while 23 were considered authoritarian states.
“Most authoritarian leaders have a large security apparatus at their disposal to suppress dissent and can mobilise supporters to counter challenges to their regime. Many do not fear international criticism or censure. These factors may be enough to ward off regime change” said the EIU.

Political uncertainty

A cross section of analysts told The EastAfrican that the economic, political and social potential of the EAC will only be unlocked when the risks created by political uncertainty in some member countries are minimised.

Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni engineered a change in the Constitution in September 2005, using the majority enjoyed by his National Resistance Movement party in the seventh parliament to allow him to ran for his current third term as president.

In Rwanda, President Paul Kagame’s second seven-year term ends in August 2017. Although he has denied he will run for a third term, speculation is that he may, partly because he has failed to identify a possible successor.

In Tanzania, it is possible to tell who is most likely to succeed President Jakaya Kikwete because of the level of maturity in political party democracy. In Kenya, there are constitutional guarantees that ensure that President Uhuru Kenyatta will not extend his rule for more than two terms if re-elected. Uganda and Rwanda do not have the same guarantees.

The problem, analysts say, is that the uncertainty created by Uganda’s and Rwanda’s presidents affects long-term business planning by local and foreign investors, which slows economic progression.

“Political certainty in each of the member countries is essential. They must each establish political systems that allow smooth transition,” said Denise Kodhe, the executive director of the Institute for Democracy and Leadership in Africa (Idea).

The EIU report notes that Burundi has improved its democratic standing and has moved from the category of an authoritarian regime to a hybrid one like Libya and Morocco.

Analysts attribute the improvement to a smooth and predictable transition system in the country and the willingness of the leadership there to negotiate with rebel factions to bring stability to the country.

Burundi has been recognised globally for implementing reforms that make it easier to do business in the country, according to the International Finance Corporation.

“Free and fair elections and civil liberties are necessary conditions for democracy, but they are unlikely to be sufficient for a full and consolidated democracy if not accompanied by a transparent and efficient government, sufficient political participation and a supportive democratic political culture,” notes the report.

The lack of smooth transition mechanisms is a major problem in many African countries where incumbents extend their terms or handover power unconstitutionally, forcing those opposing them to resort to violence. This leads to the disintegration of a country. This is why the lack of clarity in the transition of governments in Uganda and Rwanda remains one of the biggest risks facing the EAC.

“Uganda is the only EAC country without presidential term limits. How are we supposed to federate if our system is out of sync with that of our neighbours? The report of the African Peer Review Mechanism notes that Uganda has governance gaps because of a lack of term limits,” said Sarah Bireete, director of programmes at the Centre for Constitutional Governance (CCG) in Uganda.

The success of economic blocs like the European Union has been attributed to the strengthened internal democracy of each country, which allowed them to integrate easily.

The lack of a political democracy — the benchmark for creating prosperous societies — affects a country’s economic decisions and limits how well people integrate especially through trade, which then limits how much wealth people can create.

Consumption is seen as one of the key drivers of wealth in the EAC, in the future, therefore political, economic and social reforms are needed to create an economically empowered consumer.

EAC member countries are currently enjoying historic levels of growth, which average 5.6 per cent. The growth levels will be sustained and improved in the short-term when oil and gas revenues start flowing into Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania; when Kenya consolidates its democratic gains following peaceful elections and stability returns in Somalia and South Sudan.

According to a Reuters poll released in April 18, East Africa’s three biggest economies will remain resilient this year and into the next one, despite lacklustre demand from their traditional trading partners in the eurozone, because of moderate inflation and booming oil and gas exploration.

Economic growth in East Africa will improve to six per cent from 5.6 per cent last year, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa in a report released last week, aided by natural resource discoveries, improved agricultural performance, and economic diversification.

In Uganda, analysts and opposition politicians termed Uganda’s overall score of 5.16 points “too generous.”

“The score is too high in relation to how the government is performing. It is failing in service delivery, infrastructure and fighting corruption,” said opposition MP Muwanga Kivumbi.

Human rights activist Livingstone Ssewannyana said: “It is an inaccurate assessment. The score should have been lower.” 

Other respondents said reforms in Uganda are more about entrenching control and maximising the political authority of President Museveni. 

But, Information Minister Karooro Okurut said the ranking was “too mean.” She said the challenges in delivering government services are a result of budgetary constraints. Concerning issues to do with civil liberties and corruption, Ms Okurut said: “Fighting corruption is the responsibility of every citizen, but the government is also taking bold steps. Already, high profile individuals including ministers are being prosecuted.”

Although Rwanda has been leading in matters to do with economic governance, the country lags behind in civil liberties and political governance. “Economic governance needs political control to be sustainable,” said Mr Kodhe.

Ethnic differences

Tanzania has been able to manage the country’s ethnic differences — one of the major causes of political instability not only in the EAC but in Africa as a whole.

In managing ethnic differences, Tanzania has avoided the trend where dominant tribes use their numbers to control the political process and therefore disfranchise smaller ethnic groups, which can result in civil war.

Benson Bana, a lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam, said while Tanzania’s democracy may be the most vibrant in East Africa, it doesn’t translate into economic growth and this may eventually undermine it.

However, Abdallah Safari, also a lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam, faulted the country’s democratic credentials as the government limits lawful demonstrations and meetings.

Kenya has been losing its regional political supremacy because of its failure to achieve ethnic cohesion, especially after the 2007/8 post-election violence.

The country’s democracy could be improved based on how President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto run their government and how they handle their indictment by the International Criminal Court at the Hague.

By Steve Mbogo and Emmanuel Mulondo. Additional reporting by Rosemary Mirondo