Somalia is facing a dilemma over the next phase of peace support operations in the country, coming in the wake of tensions with neighbouring Ethiopia and uncertainty around funding.
This emerged as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud toured the region to meet leader of troop-contributing nations to the African Union Transition Mission (Atmis), except Ethiopia.
Mohamud visited Burundi, Djibouti, Uganda and Kenya to discuss what official dispatches said was a “smooth transition” from Atmis to the new African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom), which is supposed to start from January 2025.
They also said Aussom “must be adequately resourced and noted the importance of exploring all funding options, including Resolution 2719,” as a predictable and sustainable funding source.
Passed in December 2023, Resolution 2719 provides for Africa-led peace support operations (PSOs) to tap into UN funding for up to 75 percent of their budgetary needs, solving a perennial problem on the continent around financing operations of such missions.
But key members of the UN Security Council have been reluctant to open the tap yet, arguing the framework needs time to study especially on how to implement it on the continent.
“We recognise some have advocated for applying the UN Security Council Resolution 2719 framework to the new AU mission. This is not the time or place to apply 2719. We must coordinate closely to ensure the requisite mechanisms are fully in place in order to set a future 2719 mission up for success,” said Robert Wood, US Alternative Representative for Special Political Affairs to the UN.
“We believe, and many partners agree, that we must avoid premature application of the framework, which would undermine its credibility. Successful application will be critical to maintaining international confidence in and support for this tool in the long run,” he said at the UN Security Council briefing in Somalia on October 3.
The EastAfrican understands that the US and other partners want the 2719 implemented from 2026. A source said this would allow African Union and UN experts to review modalities, including how to categorise missions that qualify for funding.
In the meantime, the official says there are possibilities of extending Atmis by another two months, banking on the only available funding from the European Union.
Earlier in the year, the AU and the UN agreed on a roadmap on implementing the Resolution. The timelines seen by The EastAfrican indicate that full implementation is possible only after August 2025, although experts should have identified budgetary needs for effecting the resolution including specific missions before end of the year.
The Resolution allows the African Union to apply for funding, but the UN decides on a case-by-case basis. The AU has argued that UN support for local missions is crucial because the union understands components to include.
“A well-funded peace and security architecture is not simply an African priority, it is a global public good,” the Joint AU-UN Roadmap says. “A holistic approach to peace operations deployed in Africa is critical. While the United Nations Peace Keeping Operations remain important tools to promote and maintain peace and security, there are clear doctrinal, political and operational effectiveness arguments in favour of AU PSOs.”
But AU peace support operations depend on relations between the host nation and troop contributors. Under the Aussom concept of operations, troop-contributing countries (TCCs) will now be known as troop partner states (TPS).
This week, Somalia said it had lost trust in Ethiopia in being part of future peacekeeping missions in Mogadishu.
In a statement on Wednesday, Somalia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it will choose which countries to contribute troops to Aussom from January 2025.
“Ethiopia’s recent unilateral actions, including an illegal agreement with Somalia’s northern region, violate our sovereignty and erode the trust essential for peacekeeping,” said the statement.
“Past ethiopian deployments have led to increased al-Shabaab activity and little development. This demands a more strategic selection of troop partners to ensure Aussom aligns with Somalia’s security and development goals.”
While Mogadishu was not categorical on Wednesday on whether Ethiopia would send troops at all, Somalia’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi had last month indicated that Addis Ababa would not be a part of the new formation, accusing it of violating Somali territorial integrity.
The spat arose in January after Ethiopia signed a memorandum with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia which declared independence in 1991 but is not yet recognised globally as such.
The MoU has never been publicised, but officials claimed it would give Ethiopia access to the sea for a naval base in Somaliland in exchange for recognition of Somaliland’s independence.
Mogadishu says that Ethiopia’s decision to provide land to Somaliland to build a diplomatic mission in Addis Ababa, as well as supply of arms to Puntland region have added salt to injury.
“The decision on troop contributions must align with Somalia’s national interests and the preservation of its sovereignty,” Somalia said. “We remain committed to working with the African Union, United Nations, and European Union on Aussom, with Somalia leading the selection of partners that respect our sovereignty. Somalia will not compromise on decisions affecting its future and security.”
Yusuf Hassan, a Kenyan legislator for Kamukunji Constituency and a member of the National Assembly Defence, Intelligence and Foreign Relations Committee, said the dispute between the two countries should be easy to solve.
“Somalia-Ethiopia conflict is an artificial conflict that can be avoided. Ethiopia has to respect the sovereignty of Somalia. If at all they have to engage with Somalia, they have to do so with a recognised government in Mogadishu,” Mr Hassan said at the HornTalk, a weekly session on the Horn of Africa politics organised by the Africa Policy Institute, a think-tank in Nairobi.
“If there has to be a conflict, there will be no winners. It will lead to mutual destruction. We need to find a way in which these issues related to access to the sea can be resolved. If nothing is done, we are surely going to see an escalation which is not only detrimental to Ethiopia and Somalia but also for the whole region.”
Experts admit there are risks for the tensions to continue, as cooperation against the common enemy, al-Shabaab, will stall, allowing the militants to thrive.
In Nairobi, Mohamud’s last port of call in the shuttle diplomacy, a joint communique with his host President William Ruto said there was a need to uphold “the constitutive principles of respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty and non-interference.”
Ethiopia is currently a contributor to Atmis, but also has a bilateral arrangement for more troops in Somalia. Mogadishu now says they should leave before end of the year while Ethiopia argues that would be a dangerous move for the Horn of Africa’s security.
“Ethiopia can squat in localities in Somalia, and that will have its ramifications. However, given the perception of Somalis regarding how Ethiopia went about its January 1, 2024 MoU with the Somaliland region, it is difficult to foresee it operating in Somalia legitimately and with the consent of the Somali government,” said Dr Adam Aw Hirsi, director atForesight for Practical Solutions, a Mogadishu-based think tank.
“No one in Villa Somalia, now or in the future, can sanction ENDF (Ethiopian forces) presence in Somalia while Ethiopia maintains its professed aspirations to have a naval base in what Mogadishu and the entire world consider part of Somalia,” Dr Hirsi argued.
Kenya had attempted to mediate the feud between Somalia and Ethiopia over the MoU with Somaliland, but did not succeed in bringing their leaders into one room.
Turkey has twice tried to mediate without success. Ankara said it will now meet each side separately before planning another meeting.
Mogadishu has insisted any dialogue can only go forth if Addis Ababa publicly withdraws from the MoU and some experts say Ethiopia should rethink the deal, or redo the MoU through Mogadishu.
“Issues of territorial expansion should be left to history,” said Dr Kenneth Ombongi, Associate Dean of Research at the University of Nairobi, on the HornTalk. “We need to strongly urge the international community to increase the pressure and presence to ensure they deescalate the tension.”
Ethiopia, on its part, has tinkered with public statements lately, saying that it intends to solve the issue of access to the sea diplomatically.
