What future for the ANC in post-Mbeki South Africa?

With former South African president Thabo Mbeki and his allies out of government, the question is, will the moderates ever return to the centre?

It is now obvious that the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the South African Communist Party (SACP) — allies of the governing African National Congress (ANC) — having edged out a big chunk of the centrists and are ready to take their places within the government.

While prior to the coming of South African majority rule in 1994, the ANC was the dominant partner, Cosatu and SACP now have the chance to bounce back to the centre and push for welfare policies that are pro-poor.

SACP, in its online publication, Umsebenzi, welcomed the election of new president Kgalema Motlanthe as representing a new dawn in the country, and an opportunity to improve relations between ANC and its allies, as well as a new opportunity to bring government closer to the people.

Mbeki and his allies were the favourite of the business class because of their pro-private sector policies, while the new government is expected to move gradually towards policies meant to uplift the poor and stem the current discontent within the poor black majority.

Analysts say that the widespread disillusionment among the poor has been a major cause of friction between the ANC elite who are out of touch with the grassroots, on the one hand, and Cosatu and the Communist party on the other.

These differences were played out in 2001, when Cosatu faulted the government’s famous Growth, Employment and Redistribution programme, which alongside privatisation, was touted by the Mbeki government as the best way to achieve long-term economic growth.

Cosatu maintained that while the Africans make up 76 per cent of the population, their share of the country’s total income amounts to only 29 per cent.

Whites, who make up less than 13 per cent of the population, take away 58.5 per cent of total income.

In its policy statement in July 2001, Cosatu posited:“In contrast to this political progress, in socio-economic terms, the legacy of apartheid remains entrenched and, with the massive loss of jobs in the past decade, even appears to be worsening, while wealth is still concentrated in a white minority.”

The key concern now is whether ANC could face a split and suffer the same fate as other liberation parties in Africa that imploded from within after the people’s post-independence expectations turned out to be a mirage.

Among the notable ones are Kanu in Kenya, UNIP in Zambia, MPC in Malawi, and UPC in Uganda.

Tanzania’s CCM, the only remaining closely knit independence party in the continent, is currently undergoing internal turmoil after 47 years in power.

South African International Crisis Group’s Sydney Msamvu, in an interview with The EastAfrican, argued that it is too early to predict a split in the ANC, but maintained that it would be difficult for disgruntled elements within ANC to form an alternative that can wrest power from the mainstream ANC with only seven months to go before the general election.

Yet, Mr Masamvu recognised that the disillusionment within the country is a fertile ground for another party.

“While the Mandela presidency united South Africa, the Mbeki presidency entrenched economic stability and growth. But neither of the two regimes focused on policies to improve the lives of the majority poor. What we are seeing now is that people have realised that ANC has not benefited them in 14 years and are now demanding a post-Apartheid dividends,” he said.

He said this meant ANC could cease to be an overwhelming force after the 2009 elections.

But the other burning question is whether Mbeki’s exit marks the end of the Zimbabwe mediation.

Nation correspondent in Botswana Owino Wene reports that SADC spokesman Charles Mubita has maintained that Mr Mbeki will continue as mediator in Zimbabwe because his appointment to the role was based on his extensive knowledge and understanding of the issues.

The spokesman added that Mbeki’s appointment had nothing to do with his position as president.

Nevertheless, Mbeki will have to give up the SADC chairmanship to his successor, Motlanthe. Mr Masamvu is doubtful whether Mr Mbeki will be on it for long, given that he will no longer have the clout of state power, besides many of his ministers who helped in the mediation having also resigned.

“When the mediation was given to South African government, Mr Mbeki localised and privatised the mediation by including many of his minsters. Now that they are gone, there very few with institutional memory to carry the mediation forward. In other words, the exit of Mr Mbeki puts the Zimbabwe mediation in limbo, and SADC and AU should take over as soon as possible,” he said.

Notably, the to partners—Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai—have since the signing of the power-sharing deal hardened their positions, arguing over portfolio balance and who should take the substantive ministries.

To begin with, the new President, Kgalema Motlanthe, the deputy leader of the ANC, who is perceived to the president-in-waiting, Jacob Zuma.