What Somaliland’s presidential election means for Somalia
Supporters dance and sing during a rally by Somaliland's ruling Kulmiye party in Hargeisa, the capital of the self-declared republic of Somaliland in northern Somalia, on May 27, 2021.
The Somaliland region goes to the polls on Wednesday in its sixth presidential election. The region, legally a part of Somalia, unilaterally declared independence in 1993 but has not been recognised by any other sovereign State.
The elections signal its continued ability to change regimes at the ballot box, allowing civilians rather than soldiers to decide who leads them.
Somaliland is also demonstrating that it is possible for civilians to elect leaders directly, rather than through a loose form of college system applied in the wider Somalia where insecurity, financial constraints and incapable institutions have often combined with clan politics to limit citizen participation.
Three candidates from three political parties are contesting for the presidential election. Incumbent President Muse Bihi Abdi is seeking re-election through the ruling Kulmiye party. He is running against Abdurahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro of the Wadani party and Faysal Ali Warabe of the UCID party.
Under the 2001 Somaliland Constitution, political associations are allowed, but they must go to a popular vote every ten years. The three that garner most votes become the official parties.
The three current official parties Kulmiye, UCID and Wadani will join seven associations that meet the conditions, namely Barwaaqo, Rejo, Horseed, Talo-wadaag, Kaah, Hilaac, and Shacabka to compete in the parties’ election.
Combined election
This means that each voter will collect two ballot papers, one for the presidential race and the other to elect their preferred political association. This is why the election is called doorashada isku sidkan (combined election).
The election process has been very cumbersome and resulted in the extension of Muse Bihi’s term by two years.
At one point, locals bickered over whether to hold one of the elections first. The combined ballots were a compromise.
The ruling Kulmiye preferred the parties’ polls to be held first, while the opposition Wadani and UCID fought for the presidential election to be held first.
After much wrangling, a group of clan elders in Somaliland proposed the doorashada isku sidkan (combined election), which the three parties had to accept, especially after some clan militias from the eastern region rebelled and congregated at Ga’an Libah mountain range. The militias claimed that they were opposed to the lack of elections.
Fearing that the rebellion may proliferate further, the proposal of the elders had to be accepted.
The Somaliland administration was weakened when its forces were defeated by militias loyal to clan elders in Laascaanood (Las Anod) town, who formed a separate authority named as SSC-Khatumo in August 2023.
The split administration claims to represent the majority of the people in Sool, Sanaag and Cayn regions, hence the acronym SSC, with a political branch known as Khatumo.
The federal government in Mogadishu recognised SSC-Khatumo as a regional authority separate from Somaliland.
Presidential candidates
Although all three presidential candidates have equal chances, the ruling Kulmiye and Wadani parties were the main contenders in the last election in 2017, garnering most votes.
Wadani presidential flag bearer Irro accused Kulmiye of vote rigging and mismanagement of the electoral process. But after a period of bickering, Bihi was eventually declared the winner and Irro reluctantly accepted.
Now, the two face each other in the election, with many predicting a tough duel.
Bihi is campaigning on the issue of getting recognition for Somaliland's independence.
Sadik Ahmed, a political commentator in Mogadishu, told The EastAfrican that he believes President Bihi trusts that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) he signed with Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will win him many voters.
“Since the search for recognition has been the desire of many Somalilanders, the MoU is the best instrument to lure voters to the side of President Bihi,” Mr Ahmed said.
On January 1 this year, Ethiopian PM Abiy and President Bihi signed a MoU that would pave the way for landlocked Ethiopia to gain access to the sea by granting it a 20-kilometre coastal strip to establish a naval base and a commercial facility.
In return, Ethiopia promised Somaliland diplomatic recognition.
On the other hand, Irro is confident that he can unite Somaliland and ensure that the territory’s colonial borders are restored.
The Somaliland authority claims to have jurisdiction over the former British Somaliland Protectorate, which merged with Italian Somaliland on independence to form the Somali Republic on July 1, 1960.
The Somali Republic has since been renamed the Federal Republic of Somalia, with which Somaliland refuses to federate, although legislators from the region sit in the bicameral parliament in Mogadishu.
“I will turn Somaliland into a peaceful place by wooing people in the eastern regions to trust my administration, if I win,” Irro said at one of his recent campaign rallies.
“Unifying the people and reaching the eastern frontier is my priority by peaceful means,” he added.
Sool and Sanaag regions are strongly in favour of unifying Somalia against the separatists.
Since Somaliland loyalists unilaterally declared the territory as independent in 1991, following the collapse of the Somali government led by General Mohamed Said Barre (who fled Mogadishu in January that year), the authority in the capital Hargeisa has been seeking international recognition in vain.
Faysal Ali Warabe, the third candidate running on the UCID ticket, believes that the MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland is the best way to secure international recognition.
“I am confident that the MoU is the key to Somaliland getting recognition by the international community,” he told the media recently, vowing to rename Somaliland.
“If I am elected president, I’ll propose to the parliament renaming the country as the ‘Republic of the Horn of Africa’.”
The Somaliland electoral commission says it is confident that the election process will be fair.
Musa Hassan Yousuf, the chairman of the Somaliland National Electoral Commission, said there were clear election modalities, voting systems and participating political parties and associations.
“Over 1,200,000 voters have been registered and voting will take place in 1,232 stations,” Mr Yousuf said, citing the experience of the previous five elections held over three decades.
Anwar Abdirahman Warsame, chairman of the Somaliland Non-State Actors Forum, a coalition of civil society organisations, expressed optimism about the election.
“We are very confident that the election is going to be largely free and fair,” Mr Warsame told the media.
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