Arab states’ interests fuelling generals’ thirst for power in Khartoum

Editor - Africa & International

Nation Media Group

The Sudan coup leaders have shrugged off global pressure even as protesters dig in for confrontations to push for the reinstatement of a civilian administration in Khartoum.

The generals, who engineered a coup to replace the transitional government of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, seem to be savouring the benefits of divisions within the influencers in the international community, including the United Nations, on decisive actions to restore order in the country.

"The Gulf monarchies and Egypt, which of all outside powers have forged the tightest links with Burhan and the military, should urge authorities to exercise restraint rather than resort to indiscriminate force," noted a policy memo from the International Crisis Group. "The US and EU should use the considerable leverage they have with Gulf capitals and Cairo to convince them to push the generals in Khartoum to change course." "The regional Arab governments and Sudanese politicians who support the new military rule will be unmasked in the coming weeks, and as they are, Washington and other parties need to make clear that there are consequences for supporting a rogue regime," noted Alberto Fernandez, a former US chief of mission in Sudan. "Initial public comments from Cairo, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh have been muted. But all of these states will need to balance between their individual agendas for Sudan and their complicated relations with the West."

“You cannot stabilise Sudan through a coup. It is a complex society with no coherent military,” said ICG’s Mutiga. “The coup was a blunder, and the likely outcome is not stability but chaos. This is because people have tested the freedom and they will resist attempts to take it away.” Protesters who have continued to defy the state of emergency have vowed to organise a massive rallies in Khartoum. That could make or break the military’s control over the population. When the military ousted al-Bashir in April 2019, it had joined protesters only late in the day, having propped Bashir for months by crushing protesters. That marked their first move to safeguard power. They only allowed civilians in government after pressure from the AU and mediation from Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.