How Masisi’s party misread Botswana mood and lost ‘massively’

This electoral upheaval marks a significant milestone in Botswana's democratic journey, but it also raised questions about the nation's future direction as it grapples with economic challenges and aspirations for a diversified economy. 

Since gaining independence from Britain in 1966, the BDP was one of Africa’s longest-serving liberation parties in power.

With a population of just over 2.5 million, Botswana has also enjoyed relative stability and prosperity, primarily driven by its mineral wealth.

But the recent elections revealed a populace increasingly disillusioned with the status quo, a sentiment that resonated in the voting booths as opposition parties captured a commanding lead. 

The UDC, an alliance of several opposition parties, secured 28 of the 61 parliamentary seats, breaking the BDP's historical grip on power. 

With votes still being counted, the opposition has won over half of the constituencies up for grabs. Forty of the 61 constituencies had gone to the opposition by press time. 

In Botswana, a party or coalition needs to win 31 seats to get the majority necessary to form a government. Botswana's presidential system mimics South Africa's, where electors choose parties rather than candidates and leaders of winning parties then form the government.

The Botswana Congress Party (BCP), under Dumelang Saleshando, won eight seats, while the Ian Khama-backed Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) sat on five.

Khama is a former President who once endorsed Masisi and retired early. Then they fell out and he backed opposition candidates.

BDP’s defeat can be blamed on a myriad of factors, with the downturn in global diamond demand emerging as a significant catalyst.

Botswana, the second-largest natural diamond producer in the world, saw its economy adversely affected by falling prices and decreased sales, particularly since April.

In a nation where diamonds account for over 80 percent of exports and a quarter of GDP, the economic impact was severely felt.

Consequently, unemployment soared to over 27 percent, with even higher rates among the youth, highlighting the urgent need for economic diversification—a point the BDP has struggled to address convincingly.

President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s administration faced increasing criticism over its failure to diversify the economy away from its dependence on diamonds.

During his election campaign, President Masisi conceded that policy changes were essential, attempting to reassure voters that his party could lead Botswana out of its economic troubles.

But the message did not resonate with many citizens, who felt that the government had inadequately responded to the economic crisis.

The BDP defeat came as a surprise to many analysts, who expected a closely contested election. Bongani Malunga anticipated it, as he believes the BDP ignored the core principle of democracy: prioritising the will of the people. 

“BDF lost power due to a few factors. The first one would be unemployment. There is a high unemployment rate in the country. A lot of the youth are frustrated,” Mr Malunga told The EastAfrican.  

“The second one would be the shortage of medicine in hospitals. Right now, there's a huge problem because there's an affordability issue. And if you can't access basic medication at the hospitals, then means that you have to go to the private clinics or to pharmacies. And a lot of the medicine there are quite expensive.” 

The Batswana, he argued, were more concerned about basics in life, such as affording food and accessing health care. 

Read: Botswana’s President Masisi concedes after his party lost ‘massively’

“Another thing was the issue of minimum wage. The minimum wage in this country is very low. The economy has been feeling the pinch for a long time. And as a result, prices have gone up, especially for basic things such as food and rent. So, the average Batswana cannot afford to take care of themselves.”

Mr Malunga also said that a significant issue over the past few months has been the struggles faced by entrepreneurs. The government struggled to make timely payments to them, often resorting to tactics that delayed the process. This situation had a substantial impact on many business owners across the country, arousing their anger.  

Mr Boko, a seasoned lawyer and Harvard Law School graduate, took advantage of the public anger to champion his party. The 54-year-old is, however, not new to Botswana elections. 

From 2014 to 2019, Mr Boko held the position of Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly. In 2010, he took on the leadership of the Botswana National Front (BNF) and played a crucial role in establishing the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), a coalition intended to unify opposition parties and confront the long-established control of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP).

Mr Boko gained traction as a voice for change and guided the UDC during the general elections in 2014 and 2019, strengthening the alliance's presence in the electoral landscape, despite facing considerable opposition from the ruling party at the time.

A day before the elections, Mr Boko posted on his official page on X (Twitter): “Botswana First” with a picture of a UDC campaign poster with the words, “Change is Here.” 

His campaign was built on emphasising the need for renewed vision and leadership. He capitalised on the discontent surrounding the country’s economic challenges, promising to implement strategies that would diversify Botswana's economy.

The need for a robust plan, he emphasised that the UDC would prioritise job creation, investment in education, health care reform, and initiatives to reduce the overwhelming youth unemployment rate. 

President Masisi, who was seeking a second five-year term, publicly acknowledged his party’s missteps at a press conference in the capital, Gaborone on Friday following the results.

“We got it wrong big time in the eyes of the people,” he admitted. “We were really convinced of our message. But every indication, by any measure, is that there’s no way that I can pretend that we’re going to form a government. I will step aside.” 

While Mr Malunga acknowledges that it may not be entirely fair to place all the blame on the ruling party, the reality is that they are ultimately responsible. He says BDP had promised to safeguard the rights and improve the lives of citizens who saw that the party had failed.

On another note, he commends the opposition for effectively presenting their goals and deliverables in a manner that resonates with the everyday Motswana. 

“UDC have offered better minimum wage and they've also offered to create thousands and thousands of jobs through so many policies,” Mr Malunga argued. 

The new winners have offered to create more jobs, seeking to address the issue of youth unemployment. They said they will direct the youth to opportunities such as monetising social media and encouraging content creation.