After the terror attack, the response, and more unanswered questions

Al Shabaab has hit Kenya yet again with devastating results. In the wee hours of Thursday, a handful of armed Al Shabaab militants forced their way into the hostels of Garissa University College, and proceeded to maim and kill.

A week ago, the group had warned that it would attack a public university. The college was an ideal soft target. Although it is the only public university in northern Kenya, it has a diverse student population drawn from all parts of the country.

It is located in Garissa town, which is only 145 kilometres from the porous Kenya-Somalia border that is frequently used to smuggle contrabands, drugs, weapons, and people into Kenya. The college is also located not far from a military camp.

This attack has far-reaching implications and raises a number of questions.

The attack has taken place after the Leader of Majority in the National Assembly, who is also the Member of Parliament for Garissa Town and the highest ranked Somali in government, had made controversial statements beseeching the terror group not to attack certain parts of the country in return for direct negotiations with the government.

Garissa County is home to not just Duale, but also Mohamed Yusuf Haji, the chairman of the powerful Senate Committee on Defence and Foreign Affairs. He was the defence minister when Kenya sent its military into Somalia in October 2011. 

Both belong to the Ogadeni clan, which has openly supported both the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) intervention in Somalia and Kenya’s plan to turn the Somalia region of Jubba into a buffer zone with a friendly administration.

Mohamed Kuno, alias Dulyadin alias Gamdhere, the main suspect behind the planning and execution of the terror attack, is a member of the Marehan clan, which is opposed to the Kenyan plan and presence in Somalia. One of the reasons why Kuno has joined Al Shabaab and embraced its terror strategy is to address this grievance.

It must also be considered that the Marehans and Ogadenis have rivalled each other over the years with violent outcomes. This action, while aimed at hitting and embarrassing the Kenya government, is also aimed at elite Ogadenis who are close to the Kenya government and exercise enormous influence over its policy towards Somalia.

Kenyans are outraged that the latest terror attack applied the same modus operandi of administering a “religious test” and brutally killing those unable to either recite Koranic verses or answer questions related to the Muslim faith. This was the method at the Westgate Mall and in Mandera, when a Nairobi-bound bus was hijacked.

Politically, this attack could trigger a constitutional crisis after President Uhuru Kenyatta issued an executive order that interferes with the independence of the Judiciary. He ordered that 10,000 candidates, whose recruitment into the police force had been nullified by a court, be admitted into the police college. 

According to lawyer James Aggrey Mwamu, Kenyatta “has violated the Constitution” by the admissionof people “whose recruitment had been nullified by the courts.” He is also violating “his oath of office to defend the Constitution of the republic.”

If Kenyatta’s order is implemented, it could lead to a loss of faith in the Judiciary and discourage judges from making rulings on national matters in future. 

It will also undermine the Attorney General, who is the government chief legal advisor, for not restraining the president from violating the Constitution. The Inspector General of Police could also be hauled before a court for acting illegally; never mind that the president could sack him if he fails to execute his order. 

The president’s order seems to be establishing a dangerous trend in Kenya. Last week, he gave a State of the Nation address in Parliament and handed over a report on corruption with a list of 175 names of public officers implicated in corrupt deals.

This report was confidentially prepared for him on the basis of an executive order he had earlier issued. What worries constitutionalists is that such acts are being carried in contravention of the Constitution and at the expense of existing processes and constitutional institutions. 

A question that is on the minds of many Kenyans is whether the war against corruption and terrorism should be fought at the expense of the Constitution. Are Kenyans willing to trade off their civil liberties, constitutional rights and values, such as good governance, in the name of fighting terrorism? As much as the president requires national support to fight the twin enemies, he will soon find himself fighting a constitutional battle that could be costly.

President Kenyatta’s close allies are also concerned that he could be making similar political mistakes to those made by former Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan by taking bad advice, misusing opportunities, and creating unnecessary enemies.

Kenyans are keenly watching and getting worried by the way the president is addressing insecurity and violent crimes in the country. As Kenyans mourn their departed countrymen, President Kenyatta should brace himself for some hard questions.

The president has once again vowed to defeat terrorists. After the Westgate attack he promised Kenyans that a thorough and comprehensive investigation would be conducted to identify and seal loopholes in the security system. It has been more than one and a half years.

Kenyans are wondering if the government learnt anything from Westgate for it keeps acting as if it is responding to a terror attack for the first time. For instance, intelligence sources indicate that the government was warned weeks before terrorists attacked the Westgate Mall, Mpeketoni, Mandera, and Garissa. 

Why is it that security personnel have been unable to use the intelligence to detect, deter and disrupt terror threats?

The modus operandi of terrorists over the past two years to a group that is more savvy in gathering and using intelligence than the security agencies.

How can a handful of terrorists seize a high-scale mall in the capital city and a college campus, and hold Kenya’s well-armed security personnel at bay for hours and days? Garissa University College is just a stone’s throw away from a KDF camp.

The government seems to be misdiagnosing the sources of Kenya’s security threat and how to address them. Those who have encountered the terrorists say that they are most likely Kenyan nationals.

Intelligence sources have shown that there are two types of Kenyans who could be actively serving in Al Shabaab. The first group is that of non-Somali Kenyans who have been converted into Islam and recruited into Al Shabaab. Their number in the terror organisation is growing with the increasing marginalisation and alienation of the youth.

The other group is that of Somali Kenyans who had been recruited and trained by Kenyan security forces to join the Somalia military to fight Al Shabaab. About 2,000 of these youth were trained at Manyani KWS training facility and at the Archer’s Post KDF military camp near Isiolo.

It is reported that the youth were recruited on the promise of earning $600 per month and opportunities for joining the KDF on completion of their missions in Somalia. However, along the way, some deserted the training, while the rest were deployed to Somalia alongside the KDF.

Most of these KDF-trained youth returned home while others defected in Somalia and joined Al Shabaab, but have frequently moved between the two countries. Those in the country are in sleeper cells and have answered to calls to take up action on a number of occasions.

It is suspected that these youth could have been involved in Westgate Mall, Mpeketoni, Mandera and Garissa attacks. It is also said that the the terrorists in these attacks spoke Kiswahili or some version of it.

The government is aware of the presence of these youth in the country and has attempted to mop them up through swoops such as Operation Usalama Watch.

Another knee-jerk reaction to terror attacks and insecurity in the country is the proposal, legislation and adoption of controversial and draconian security laws in December 2014.

After Mpeketoni and Mandera attacks, the government blamed weak laws. Hardly three months later, the new laws seem not to be achieving their objective of preventing and combating terrorism.

A security question that will also have to be answered by the Interior Cabinet Secretary and the IGP is why Kenya’s security has not mastered the terrorist modus operandi.

For instance, in the latest attack, a handful of terrorists forcefully gained entry into the university and went about selecting and eliminating targets — just like they did at the Westgate Mall, Mpeketoni and Mandera.

Similarly, the response seems not to have been co-ordinated and executed to swiftly end the siege. Does it mean that since 2013 the Kenya government has not been able to train a special force that can rapidly respond to such hostage-taking and terror attacks?

Watching how the forces handled those rescued from the university siege reminded one of similar situation at Westgate Mall, where those leaving the crime scene were not all treated as suspects.

The terrorists could have easily slipped away while posing as students. And, like in the Westgate attack, the government is informing Kenyans that the suspects were all killed in the operation, but has not shown proof. 

Another similarity worth mentioning is the use of the military to address an internal security problem. The fact that it took more than nine hours before military tanks rolled into the campus to provide cover from snipers raises questions as to why it took that long when a KDF camp is in close proximity to the college.

That the operation took more than 12 hours to end meant high levels of casualty and psychological trauma to the families and nation.  

Could it be that since the Westgate Mall siege, Kenya’s police and military have not forged closer working relations for such operations?

It is apparent that President Kenyatta has not fixed the systemic failures in the government’s security apparatus. This is more so when it is considered that all the attacks after Westgate have happened almost in similar manner.

Many Kenyans could be wondering if the former intelligence chief Michael Gichangi, former IG David Kimaiyo and former Internal Security Minister Joseph Ole Lenku have now been vindicated.

Another security question that is begging for answers is why the attack came just days after the UK and Australia had issued travel advisories warning their citizens against travelling to Kenya for security reasons. Among the places the British pointed out as facing high security risks are Garissa County, Eastleigh and a 60-kilometre stretch of the Kenya-Somalia border.

The terrorist attack has received widespread regional and international condemnation. However, President Kenyatta should not expect overwhelming support similar to the one he received after the Westgate Mall attack.

It will be recalled that he was able to gain political mileage by rallying the nation with the hashtag #WeAreOne. He also used the incident to confront the International Criminal Court and to garner continental and regional support. He argued that Al Shabaab was a regional threat that required his presence in the country, thus the country could not afford him being bogged down at the Hague.

Now that the ICC case is over for him, what excuse will he have for not securing Kenya and pacifying the nation?

Beware external help

It is improbable that the region and the international community will rally behind Kenya in the same way it rallied behind France after the Charlie Hebdo terror attack. However, offers from outside could come with strings attached.

The UK could use the latest terror attack to offer more specialised and significant security and military assistance in exchange for signing the defence co-operation deal that is expiring in two weeks. Negotiations over renewal of the agreement are going on as both sides have taken uncompromising positions.

But President Kenyatta could also consider closer ties with the United States by offering Africom access to its military facilities in exchange for material support and specialised training. Africom is already in Kenya with bases in Manda Bay and Garissa but would like access to more facilities.

The US could also revisit the issue of Kenya signing a waiver on Article 98 of the Rome Statute that grants American soldiers immunity. But to do this would contravene one of its positions in the on-going negotiations with the British to ensure that its soldiers are subject to Kenyan laws while in the country.

Kenya is also likely to enter into more security and military arrangement with the US when President Barack Obama visits Kenya in July. Since security is the main American geostrategic interest in the region, it is inevitable that it will seize opportunities presented by the latest terror attack to forge closer military and security ties with Kenya.

Kenya is once again facing a serious security challenge and threat. How President Kenyatta steers the country through these turbulent times will have far-reaching implications on the country’s internal politics and regional peace and security.

Kenyans are wondering if the hashtag #WeAreBehindKenya will guarantee the traumatised nation the much desired security.

Prof Trevor Ng’ulia is a security expert