Democracy is gaining in Africa, so why this sense of deja vu?

Africa’s biggest country has become its youngest democracy.” So said a BBC journalist covering Nigeria’s recent elections.

The outcome of the poll had just been announced, firing pundits’ imaginations and sending millions of supporters of President-elect General Muhammad Buhari into frenzied celebrations.

Many Nigerian and non-Nigerian commentators have been extravagant in their pronouncements about what exactly Nigeria’s “successful” elections mean for the country and for Africa. For the Nigerian commentators, apparently, they will bring the “change” Nigerians have been longing for and not getting because, among other reasons, people’s voices did not count.

For Africa, pundits went into overdrive, proclaiming that these elections will have an impact elsewhere, as people are now going to demand that their politicians listen to them. But isn’t that what pundits always tell us each time something they consider significant happens in one African country or the other?

When the Arab Spring toppled longstanding governments, we were told that it would have a domino effect. Nothing of the sort happened.

When the Burkinabe toppled Blaise Compaore, we were told how that was precisely what the pundits had meant, that “a new chapter” had opened on the continent, and that soon enough other presidents who have been around for long would follow Compaore.

Well? Do these pundits never tire of repeating the same old clichés and getting it wrong each time?

I am not trying to minimise the importance or significance of Nigeria’s elections. One may say whatever one likes about the fact that a 72-year old former president defeated a 68-year old in what seems like a game of musical chairs involving only old men, but that’s beside the point.

The fact that the loser conceded defeat quickly and congratulated the winner is to be celebrated on a continent where power contests have long been matters of life and death. Just as significant is that the loser’s supporters went home and stayed there quietly, hopefully reflecting on what they ought to do differently next time.

In as far as power changing hands between rival camps is concerned, Nigeria has joined the distinguished club of the likes of Ghana, Malawi, Zambia, Cape Verde, Tunisia and others. In as far as the elections were peaceful, that happens in many countries these days, never mind that in several cases power stays in the same camp.

One hopes the continent will continue on this trajectory, and that one day Africans will no longer be urged to celebrate events they ought to take for granted in the same way people elsewhere do.

Too much hope?

That said, as Nigerians danced away and made big claims about what “democracy” would bring, now that they had elected a tough and honest man, I couldn’t help but feel a certain sense of déjà vu.

It happens everywhere: A new government is elected and suddenly hopes rocket skywards. The trouble with hopes rising so high, however, is that the higher they rise, the harder they crash.

Ask some Ugandans about how they felt in 1986 when the NRM captured power and how they feel now; black South Africans about how they felt in 1994 and how they feel today; some Kenyans about how the Jubilee Coalition made them feel and what they feel now; and lastly, some Tanzanians about the new leadership in 2005. You will get the picture.

There is no doubt Nigerians will soon enough stop dancing and congratulating themselves and face some stark realities as the man they have elected to lead them begins to do the job they have given him.

The first source of trouble may be the very coalition of parties and political interests that constituted the “infrastructure” on which General Buhari rode to power. There are indications that far from being the architect of the “movement,” he was merely its candidate.

At the very least this suggests that at best he will be first among equals within the coalition’s leadership, at worst merely a vehicle through which some very powerful characters may seek to pursue interests that do not necessarily tally with those of the Nigerians who gave them power. In either scenario, Nigerians may be in for a surprise.

There is also the scale of problems that long-suffering Nigerians will want General Buhari and his team to deal with as a priority. There is Boko Haram and the savage insurgency they are waging against the state.

This goes hand in hand with what many claim is the “rot” in the country’s military, by which is meant deeply embedded corruption. And then, of course, there is the grand corruption outside the military, which many blame for abysmal state failure in much of the country.

State failure manifests itself in poor social services, insecurity of person and property in many places, high levels of poverty in a country endowed with vast natural, financial, and human resources, and in crumbling infrastructure.

It is tempting to think that all that is required to sort this out is a government elected by the people in free and transparent polls. It simply isn’t true.

Frederick Golooba-Mutebi is a Kampala- and Kigali-based researcher and writer on politics and public affairs. E-mail: [email protected]