Putin’s war may end up triggering a remake of African colonial states

It’s too scary for many to contemplate, so the conventional wisdom now is that when Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is done bombing Ukraine into the dark ages, he will be content to stand over the ruins of his victory.

Most commentaries in the weeks to the Russian invasion held that Putin was chest-thumping to get Ukraine to back off its quest to join the European Union and NATO. Putin confounded them and sent his troops in.

Western hypocrisy and the racism both Ukraine and other European countries have shown towards Africans fleeing the war are despicable. But they would pale compared to the nightmare that might follow. Small wars have a way of running out of the control of the men that start them. World War 1 and 2 started that way — in central and eastern Europe, the same neighbourhood of the current Russian campaign.

The war hasn’t been the walk in the park that the overwhelmingly superior Russian army might have expected. Putin could unleash some deadly weapons of mass destruction to finish this quickly. The sight of “civilised” Europeans “blonde and blue eyes being killed,” to borrow some of the descriptions western journalists and officials have used, might be too much for the rest of them to just sit on their hands.

When the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) started its war against the Ethiopian government in 2020, the momentum seemed to be on its side. I met in Nairobi with some thoughtful Ethiopians, including some who were in exile. When I asked if TPLF would try and march on Addis Ababa, I was shouted down. It was such a preposterous idea, they said. Well, the TPLF eventually made a beeline for Addis Ababa – and met its Waterloo.

Putin might not be content with Ukraine. He has already warned Finland and Sweden they will face dire consequences if they join NATO.

All this will have major consequences in Africa. Beyond the impact of increased wheat prices (Russia and Ukraine are the leading producers), skyrocketing fuel costs and others, there could be more immediate dire security outcomes. Beset by an eight-year jihadist insurgency, in August 2021 the Mali military seized power and installed a junta. Mali ran the French military out of town and reportedly called in Wagner.

In Burkina Faso, in January, the military grabbed power, blaming the government for failing to provide enough for it to fight Islamist insurgents. Turns out their plan was to hire Russian private contractors to do the job for them, and some are alleged to have already arrived. Their case can only have strengthened by Burkinabe protestors demanding Russian help.

A protracted war in Ukraine could see Russia withdraw more of its private military services from Africa, as it has already done in the Central African Republic. Within months, we could have jihadist insurgents sweeping through the Sahel as officials and soldiers in beleaguered states run for the hills. The better-run African countries with functioning militaries are unlikely to just watch it all on TV.

Putin might just kick off a new era of military expansion in Africa too, and a remake of our colonial states.

Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the “Wall of Great Africans”. Twitter@cobbo3