Will the Westgate massacre now galvanise support for Amisom?

Was it the Godane faction of Al Shabaab, Al Qaeda Central or a new splinter group that carried out the deadly Westgate Mall attack that has claimed the lives of close to 100 people?

This is the key question that has polarised opinion within the analytical and intelligence community in Nairobi.

The testimony of Kenyan intelligence chief Michael Gichangi before a parliamentary committee is being eagerly awaited and could shed some light on who the perpetrators are.

A dozen suspects are being interrogated and a large multinational team of forensic experts are scouring the mall, inch by inch, and the cumulative evidence obtained would likewise be of help.

Sources told The EastAfrican the NIS had “actionable intelligence” and “prior knowledge” of the attack and had warned the police to beef up security and to post armed police at all the key malls in the city.

If true, this could further escalate the recrimination and bitter inter-agency and inter-departmental feud that has emerged in the wake of the attack.

The scale of the attack caused disarray within the government, with the foreign ministry and the interior ministry reading from different scripts. But many would be keen to hear what Mr Gichangi had to say about the identity and profile of the terrorist group that carried out the attack.

Intelligence sources believe the picture of two gunmen at the lobby of the Westgate Mall, armed with AK47 rifles and carrying bags presumably filled with hand grenades — first posted on an Arabic twitter page — is genuine.

“The gunmen have Somali features and are dressed like Al Shabaab fighters,” one source said.

“But this alone is not enough to prove Ahmed Abdi Godane ordered the attack,” the source added.

An alleged Godane audio clip that was posted on the Internet on Wednesday seems to strengthen the case that Godane may have ordered the attack, but there is doubt as to its authenticity.

What we have is an English language voice-over translation of Godane’s remarks in Arabic. Nowhere in the clip do we hear Godane make explicit comments in reference to the attacks, and this appears odd to many.

If it were Godane who masterminded the attack, the aim would be to send a message that he is fully in charge and his capacity to plan and execute complex operations has not been diminished by all the reports of dissension and fragmentation in recent months.

The former accountant-turned-guerrilla leader is believed to be hiding in Barawa, a tiny coastal village in southern Somalia, constantly on the move and in mortal fear of a US drone strike.

He has in the past one year sidelined and killed prominent rivals such as Hasan Dahir Aweys, Ibrahim al-Afghani and Omar Hammami (Al-Amriki).

Having purged and “purified” the organisation of “dissidents,” he probably now has a freer hand to rebuild it and focus it more on global jihad. No less important — assuming he is, indeed, the mastermind — the operation may have been primarily designed to mollify his critics in the global jihad fraternity and to demonstrate his utility and commitment to Al Qaeda and its agenda of a permanent global jihad.

However, if as some experts suggest, Godane is currently in no position to carry out an operation of this scale and sophistication, who else was?

Certainly, his ruthless tactics to cement control have caused friction within the wider global jihadi community.

Earlier in the year, his Isaaq clansman and close confidant, Ibrahim al-Afghani, wrote an unprecedented letter to Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri accusing his old friend and ally of authoritarianism.

Another prominent jihadi, Al-Amriki, echoed similar sentiments in various Internet audio messages and media interviews. Both men were killed by Godane hitmen.

Al-Zawahiri has been keen not to intervene in the internecine struggle within AlShabaab directly, but in recent comments, the Al Qaeda leader appeared to criticise Godane — albeit obliquely — suggesting for example that Godane had not treated foreign jihadis well.

If, as some suggest, Al Qaeda Central is not happy with Godane, could the Westgate attack be the first “signature attack” of a new outfit, supported by Al Qaeda Central and keen to wrest control of the movement from Godane?

Slick media campaign

This may be speculative, but the apparent sophistication of the attack and the slick media campaign would seem to suggest the operation could not have been pulled off without Al Qaeda’s active collusion or input.

How Kenya responds to the attack may also indicate who it believes carried out the attack.

There are reports Kenya is massing troops and hardware along the border in readiness for a massive military offensive to punish Al Shabaab. Western diplomatic sources have told The EastAfrican there is a likelihood that the Kenyan offensive may be supported by armed US drones.

The attack has hardened US views and strengthened the hand of those who want to see Washington step up its counterterrorism efforts in Somalia and East Africa in order to disrupt terror cells and to hunt down and kill Shabaab’s senior leadership.

It is also likely that Amisom’s bid for greater resources and demand for increased specialised combat kits and hardware like helicopter gunships could meet with some success.

If the masterminds of the Westgate attack had hoped that the operation would demoralise Kenya and the rest of the Amisom troop contributing countries, undermine social cohesion and catalyse a process of troop pullout, it seems likely the contrary will happen.

Are we then on the cusp of a major shift in Amisom’s counterinsurgency and counterterrorism campaigns?

To be precise, is a world shocked and galvanised by the horrors of the Westgate massacre now ready to fully commit itself and provide all the resources and help required to Amisom, to the troop contributing countries and to Somalia’s military and security forces to permanently cripple Al Shabaab and disrupt its terror associates and cells?