East Africa may be building more refining capacity than its market can absorb. The region consumes about 416,000 barrels a day equivalent of refined petroleum products, according to a 2024 study by the African Energy Commission (Afrec), yet three proposed refineries could eventually put close to 1 million barrels a day of capacity into the market.
That mismatch is turning East Africa’s refining ambitions into a question of economics rather than engineering: Who will have the margins, logistics and markets to keep these plants running at commercially viable utilisation rates?
