East Africa is entering an extraordinary energy race. Kenya is advancing plans for a large, Dangote-backed refinery in Lamu, while Tanzania and Uganda are pushing a rival energy hub in Tanga. On paper, this looks like healthy competition between two coastal gateways. But beneath the contest lies a more important question: is East Africa building energy security, or simply reproducing national rivalries through larger infrastructure projects?
The timing matters. The region remains heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products. Recent geopolitical disruptions have shown how quickly events far from East Africa can translate into higher freight costs, supply delays and rising fuel prices at home. S&P Global has estimated that roughly 80 per cent of the region’s gasoil and jet fuel comes from Persian Gulf states. For economies where transport costs feed rapidly into food prices, inflation and household spending, this is a strategic vulnerability.
